Frustrated China steps up warship and fighter plane activity around Taiwan

From July onwards, there has been a significant increase in the number of planes and ships detected around Taiwan within a 24-hour period, with a total of 26 planes and 13 ships being identified. Starting at 5am, a total of 11 warplanes from China were observed within Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ). The Republic of China military reported that a Chinese carrier strike group, en route to the western Pacific for training purposes, passed approximately 111km to the southeast of the island on Monday.

Participating in it was unclear what engages it, but the PLA strike group was guiding the aircraft carrier Shandong.

In recent weeks, although there have been several active typhoons passing through the region, the ships and warplanes of the PLA have been sent into the ADIZ on a near daily basis. The Chinese government and the people of Taiwan overwhelmingly reject the prospect of “reunifying” with China, which the Communist Party of China considers Taiwan to be a province of. In recent years, the PLA has greatly increased its military targeting of Taiwan.

The Chinese state media accused two navies, Canadian and US, of attempting to “raise tensions” by sailing two warships through the Taiwan Strait, immediately following a freedom of navigation activity by the PLA, which renewed the Fonop. Beijing was warned that there was a greater chance of a “head-on conflict” in China’s waters as its allies and the US sailed through more frequently, and It cautioned that there was a limit to Beijing’s patience.

Xi Jinping, the leader of China, emphasized the importance of developing fresh combat capabilities and enhancing the training of crucial and challenging subjects during his visit to a Chinese army base in the north-east. According to state media, Xi stressed the need for all-encompassing improvements in combat readiness and highlighted the necessity to elevate the level of combat preparedness. Moreover, this occurred shortly after his recent inspection.

Analysts have suggested that the PLA was practicing strikes on Taiwan from a posture-style encirclement at the time, and it was the first time that J-15s had been detected inside the ADIZ. Those drills, which marked the first time the PLA launched from the east of the island, are seen as a potential sign of new training exercises targeting Taiwan, potentially signifying the Shandong, a ship-launched fighter jet, as a potential threat. Some analysts believe this activity could be a response by Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen to her meeting with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy earlier this year.

During infrequent and momentous events, the line has, up until recent times, functioned as a substantial obstacle and was merely surpassed. The median line, acting as a de facto boundary in the Taiwan Strait, was traversed by all except one of the 26 aircrafts detected on Sunday. No J-15s were detected by Taiwan on Sunday and Monday.

In the previous month, following a comprehensive aerial encirclement of Taiwan’s primary landmass, the trajectories suggested that the PLA persisted in practicing novel tactics, as J-16 fighters remained on Taiwan’s side of the boundary for prolonged durations. Maps of the ADIZ intrusions on Sunday, furnished by Taiwan, exhibited atypical flight routes.

Freelance South China Sea observer, Duan Dang, suggested that China may be initiating new exercises around Taiwan, along with the resumption of intrusions in the ADIZ, through the passage of the warship group Shandong in the Bashi Strait.

I anticipate that China will strategically escalate military activities in Taiwan in the months leading up to Taiwan’s presidential election scheduled for January next year, with the aim of influencing public opinion.