There’s no denying that Joe Musgrove’s fastball, judged by its faster spin rate, was the juiciest matchup of the Wild Card Series between the Mets and the Padres on Sunday night.
Nevertheless, there is inadequate proof to indicate that the Padres hurler was employing a sticky substance to improve his rotation speed.
Throughout the sport of baseball, this has been proven to be accurate and it is a matter of fundamental physics. In general, the baseball rotates to a greater extent and is thrown with increased speed. As the velocity increases, the rate of spin also increases.
It is difficult to distinguish this game’s rest from Sunday’s game, but once you do, you can see that Musgrove’s spin is at an impressive velocity of one mile per hour. During the playoffs, it is a well-known phenomenon that fastball velocity and spin increase. This analysis from Baseball Driveline mirrors that trend.
In June of last year, when umpires began to touch pitchers more frequently, the events that occurred on Sunday do not appear to be the opposite of what happened. Musgrove showed an increase of 100 RPM in raw spin and 0.5 RPM/MPH. We observed that one-fifth of the league experienced a sudden decrease of over two RPM/MPH. Through laboratory tests, we determined that the most adhesive substances could increase spin by 300, 400, or even more RPM. Additionally, we have knowledge of what the statistical indicators of using a sticky substance looked like when enforcement was initially implemented last season.
It’s fair to wonder about Musgrove’s slider. During the season, about 20 percent more of his sliders were volatile, pitching from a spin over the course. When you look at the graph in the first glance, you’ll see that sliders for a breaking pitcher have about 50 to 40 percent more spin on their four-seamer pitches compared to the spin on the baseball. But if you look at the velocity and spin, you’ll see that sliders are more volatile. It was easily his highest spin rate on the slider during the season, and in September, his pitch had an average spin rate of 7.1 MPH/RPM. The pitch had a spin rate of 248 RPM while only going half a mile per hour in velocity. It’s fair to wonder about Musgrove’s slider.
In the first inning of the baseball game, Showalter Buck often collects baseballs that have been touched and are sticky. This is because umpires are now frequently physically touching pitchers to increase their grip on the ball, which is why they are called “stuff sticky”. The most spin-increasing substances are sticky, which is why pitchers use them. When the umpire went to check the ball and touched it, Musgrove’s ears were particularly sweaty, especially when he threw sliders. It seems like a fruitless endeavor to focus on evidence of Musgrove touching his ears, especially when there is so much without it.
When asked after the game, Showalter chose to discuss the spin rates of the balls but did not specifically mention their stickiness.
The Mets manager expressed, following the game, “undoubtedly, given the way things were unfolding, we were not experiencing much fortune in the dugout. In the dugout, I receive a plethora of noteworthy information that catches your attention when you observe something that everyone is aware of; such as the spin rates and various aspects. Without delving into specifics, they are exceptional, and he is an exceptional pitcher. It will not cast any negative light, but I do feel a sense of remorse about it. The only thing is, I deeply admire him as a pitcher, always have. That aspect is evident, and we have access to numerous details.”
From pitch to pitch, the spin of the slider is significantly more unpredictable. And even if he was, it was only on sliders. For those who are certain that Musgrove was using something, the responsibility of providing evidence then changes. Throughout the year, Musgrove’s spin rate for his four-seam fastball was consistent with his previous performances when considering velocity. Initially, they may appear to be reliable, but the issue with these spin rates is that they don’t convey the message as effectively as they should.
In the end, Joe Musgrove’s sweaty ears may be the Test Rorschach of the playoffs, where you can see either the source of the extra spin on his slider or the results of his extra velocity in putting his fastball.