The historical turning point, which marks the beginning of a long period of decline in its population and profound implications for its economy, is expected to result in a minimum decline of 0.06% in the number of citizens. According to official data published by the National Bureau of Statistics (ONE) of the Asian giant, for the first time since 1961, a decrease of 850,000 people was recorded, which resulted in a total population of 1,411.75 million in China, the most populous country in the world, by the end of 2022.
China, the country with the highest population in the world, concluded 2022 with a total of 1,411.75 million residents, which is slightly lower than the 1,412.6 million recorded at the end of the preceding year. This decrease, the first since 1961, which was also the final year of the Chinese Great Famine, further supports forecasts that India will surpass China as the most populous nation on the planet.
The experts from the UN predict that the population in southeastern China will decrease from 109 million inhabitants in 2050 to here. This is triple the previous forecast in 2019, and it is due to the aging population, which will increase the public debt, raising concerns about the social and health costs.
Europe and the United States added, inflation and high prices can still further aggravate the manufacturing industry and decrease the workforce. Demographer Yi Fuxian assured Reuters that China will adjust its foreign and defense policies. The economic and demographic prospects of China are expected to be much darker.
“The overall supply of labor continues to surpass the demand,” stated Kang Yi, director of the National Statistics Office, who asserted that there should be no concern regarding the decline in population.
In 2022, the lowest figure since the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 was 6.77 to 7.52 births per thousand inhabitants, the birth rate dropped.
In 2021, the mortality rate was compared to a rate of 7.18 deaths per 1,000 individuals, which is the highest since 1974, during the Cultural Revolution, with a mortality rate of 7.37 deaths per 1,000 individuals. The data from the Chinese statistical office also indicate a rise in fatalities, which increased from 10.14 million to 10.41 million.
The number of Chinese women of childbearing age, which the government defines as the group of 25 to 35 years old, decreased by about 4 million.
The measures taken so far, however, have done little to halt the long-term trend. President Xi Jinping also stated in October that the Government would enact new supportive policies. Since 2021, local governments have implemented measures to encourage people to have more children, such as tax deductions, longer maternity leave, and housing assistance. In addition, China’s strict zero-Covid policies, in effect for the past three years, have further damaged the country’s demographic prospects. Much of the demographic decline is due to China’s one-child policy, enforced between 1980 and 2015, as well as the exorbitant costs of education, which discourage many families from having more than one child or even none at all.
In the context of the great famine caused by the failed industrialization campaign known as the Great Leap Forward, China lost around 7 million inhabitants in the year 1961, according to data from the World Bank (WB). The last time China experienced a contraction in its population was in 1961.
A decrease of nearly 10%, which, according to the data published today, dropped from 10.62 million in 2021 to 9.56 million, was attributed by demographic experts to a decline in the number of births. Last week, the possibility of a population reduction based on estimates had already been reported by the Chinese official press.
According to an official from ONE, the published death figures today, which were based on data conducted on November 1st and cited by Times Global, do not reflect a possible increase in mortality resulting from the withdrawal of ‘zero covid’ restrictions, beginning in December and spreading.
On the 12th of January and the mentioned date of lifting restrictions, between the 8th of December, China recently acknowledged that it recorded approximately 60,000 COVID-related deaths.
DECLINING TREND.
The proportion of individuals aged 60 or above rose from 18.9% to 19.8%, whereas the proportion of individuals within the working age range -16 to 59 years old- declined from 62.5% to 62%, affirming the presence of an aging phenomenon in the country.
The national authorities had already predicted that the country’s population was headed for negative growth before 2025.
Since 2021, Chinese citizens have been permitted to have a third child; however, this decision has not been warmly welcomed by the public. This is primarily due to the financial responsibilities associated with raising a child, as well as the fact that numerous women prioritize their careers after years of adhering to the one-child policy and later transitioning to a two-child policy.
In 1992, the fertility rate of the Asian giant fell below the replacement level of 2.1, and in 2020, it dropped to 1.3, which has led various regions of the country to announce supportive policies or even subsidies for those who choose to have children.
In the near future, China will surpass the current population of 1.38 billion inhabitants to become the most populous country in the world, with approximately 1.38 billion inhabitants.
According to the South China Morning Post, Zhang Zhiwei, the Chief Economist of Pinpoint Asset Management, stated that there is a high probability of a decline in the population of China in the upcoming years. This holds significant importance as it will have consequences for the potential for economic growth and domestic consumption.
Zhang further stated that moving forward, the expansion of the economy will increasingly need to rely on the enhancement of productivity, propelled by governmental measures. The demographic situation, however, will pose a challenging obstacle. China cannot count on the advantages provided by its population structure as a fundamental driving force for its economic growth.