Next week, the leaders of the so-called BRICS group, which consists of China, India, Russia, and Brazil, will convene in Johannesburg, Africa-South, to solidify a counterbalance to the Western-led international system and demonstrate to the world that there are alternatives to the U.S.-Dominated global institutions and alliances that have dominated affairs for decades. Both China and Russia are eager to breathe new life into the BRICS bloc.
The upcoming summit has extended invitations to over 67 global leaders and dignitaries, while the interest in joining BRICS has been expressed by approximately 40 nations, ranging from Argentina to Saudi Arabia to Kazakhstan, as an alternative to the system led by the United States. This indicates a clear and increasing desire among other nations.
Internationally, Sarang Shidore, the director of the global south program at the Quincy Institute think tank, expressed that the upcoming BRICS summit will be closely monitored by countries in the global south. There is an anticipation that this coalition of influential nations, which is gaining prominence, will take steps towards addressing the considerable gaps left by America’s insufficient global governance. In the midst of the pandemic and Russia’s conflict in Ukraine, economies of emerging markets are facing challenges while Washington has offered limited aid. Instead, the US has opted to pursue an aggressive strategy of raising interest rates, exacerbating economic unrest on a global scale.
The upcoming summit harkens back to the days of the Bandung Conference, where 29 governments from Africa, Asia, and the Middle East assembled during the Cold War to lay the groundwork for the nonaligned movement. Serving as an effort to push back against the hegemony of the day, BRICS has become a complicated membership, including Russia and China.
“The question is, what role do they want to have in BRICS?” Said Rebecca Ray, a senior researcher at the Global Development Policy Center at Boston University, noting that even countries that are not applying for membership in the Johannesburg summit have tapped into the demand elsewhere.
There is no clear answer yet, as the fact remains that the BRICS countries have vastly disparate national interests and vague proposals, which seem to influence the economic and membership bloc’s stumble out of the gate. Complicating the matter is the fact that few details have been released on the real deliverables or agenda from the upcoming summit, so experts don’t expect much to emerge.
China and India are currently at loggerheads, while Brazil has done little to stick its neck out for Russia amidst the war in Ukraine. South Africa is caught between a hard rock and a diplomatic place in its ties with Russia, while all BRICS countries face economic headwinds challenging their plans for the future, making the dream of topping the global economy at spot 7 more of a pipe dream than a reality.
“According to Oliver Stuenkel, a professor at Brazil’s Fundação Getulio Vargas School of International Relations, he stated, ‘However, I believe that if there are more ambitious initiatives, it will undeniably put pressure on this coalition and reveal the differences.’ Currently, the coalition is in a favorable position where it effectively fulfills its purpose, aiding members in limiting the influence of the United States to a certain degree, and enhancing the bonds among the BRICS countries.”
Legally South Africa, as a member of the ICC, would have been required to honor the arrest warrant. The warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s arrest over war crimes in Ukraine has been issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC). However, there is an awkward twist to this situation: Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be attending in person because there is a warrant for his arrest over war crimes in Ukraine from the International Criminal Court (ICC). In the aftermath of its brutal war in Ukraine, the BRICS summit provides Russia with an opportunity to demonstrate that it no longer relies on the West, following Western attempts to isolate Moscow on the global stage.
The global south and various countries worldwide, which believe they have been undervalued or neglected by China, have been overlooked or disregarded by Washington and its influential partners in Europe and Asia. China, on the other hand, is eager to establish itself as the de facto leader of the global south and the preferred ally to these countries. Despite Beijing’s persistent efforts to expand the BRICS group, other members have resisted China’s aspirations.
According to Stuenkel, China does not have any concerns about diminishing the status of BRICS by increasing the number of countries involved. He believes that expanding the group would be beneficial in establishing a China-centered order, characterized by various structures such as the One Belt, One Road initiative, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and the BRICS bank. Stuenkel is referring to China’s prominent global infrastructure investment program, the multinational lender supported by China, and the recently established New Development Bank by BRICS countries nearly ten years ago.
The idea of expansion has worried both Brazil and India, as it will open the door to diminishing prestige and exclusivity that the group takes pride in. Furthermore, Beijing has had a harder time getting other BRICS members on board, further underscoring their competing visions for the future of the group.
Stuenkel expressed, “Brazil takes great pride in its BRICS affiliation.” “It is understandable that one would not desire the club to be open to all if they are a member of a highly exclusive group.”
Economist Jim O’Neill vehemently criticized the notion of a BRICS currency as “absurd” and “ridiculous” just a few days ago. Despite not being on the summit’s agenda, the plan is viewed with extreme doubt by experts. As a pre-summit suggestion, several leaders have proposed the creation of a BRICS shared currency as a safeguard against the dominance of the U.S. Dollar. Jim O’Neill, an economist who originally coined the term BRICS in 2001, holds this perspective.
According to J. Peter Pham, a previous U.S. Diplomatic representative to African regions under the Trump administration, “unless you perceive the absence of content as politically significant in itself,” I do not anticipate any substantial outcomes from this summit. The notion of a BRICS currency, this impractical concept, to establish a cohesive union and broaden its membership, appears highly implausible to me, that five countries with significantly different interests and paths can somehow support it.
Although experts do not anticipate any obstacles to the current global financial structure, they are also prepared to discuss the possibility of a unified payment system and a committee dedicated to a shared currency. These initiatives are expected to continue long after the Johannesburg summit, as BRICS countries deliberate on how to increase the utilization of local currencies in trade. In the lead-up to the BRICS summit, an increasing number of nations, such as Brazil and Argentina, have employed the renminbi in trade to address a scarcity of US dollars and gain favor with Beijing. However, even in the absence of a common currency, Beijing has utilized the BRICS alliance to enhance its longstanding endeavor to internationalize the renminbi and reduce its reliance on the dollar.
According to Daniel McDowell, an expert in international political economy at Syracuse University, the discussion about a common currency among the BRICS nations is a reflection of a desire to have a counterweight to the US economy in certain segments of the global economy. However, I personally see this as a fantasy and don’t believe that it will actually materialize in any significant way.