From 2014 onwards, there has been an escalation in defense collaboration. However, it is important to note that China and Russia do not possess a formal alliance, and their armed forces have never jointly participated in any combat operations. The enhancement of cooperation in space is particularly notable, as evidenced by the integration of their respective satellite-dependent navigation systems. Additionally, both nations have initiated joint efforts to develop advanced missile warning systems.
China has emerged as one of the world’s leading arms exporters and now produces the majority of its own weapons. This is due to the advancement of China’s defense industry, as well as Russia’s willingness to sell sophisticated systems without fearing technology theft. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, China’s arms imports have declined in recent years, with most of its imported arms coming from Russia and the Soviet Union.
Since the commencement of the conflict in Ukraine, it marked their initial collaborative military training. China and Russia demonstrated their strong strategic alliance in May 2022 by conducting flyovers near Japan with bombers, coinciding with the visit of U.S. President Joe Biden and other leaders from Quad nations to Tokyo. Some argue that these drills are more significant in terms of the message they convey to the United States and European countries, rather than their actual operational advantages. Furthermore, the exercises have become larger and more intricate, contributing to the enhancement of military coordination and trust between the two nations. The joint military drills between China and Russia have witnessed an escalation, with numerous exercises conducted since their first one in 2003.
What are their economic ties?
Investment in infrastructure and telecommunications is crucial for Chinese banks and companies, as they heavily rely on partnerships with Russia. Russia is China’s fourteenth-largest trading partner, while China is Russia’s top trading partner after the EU. This economic relationship has become increasingly imbalanced over the past two decades, with trade between the two countries reaching an all-time high of $147 billion in 2021, generating concerns in Moscow, which depends on China far more than vice versa.
China imported 10% of its natural gas and 15% of its coal, provided by Russia and crude oil imports from China accounted for 16% of Russia’s total in 2021. In fact, more than half of China’s energy-related exports in 2020 were to Russia, highlighting the significant energy needs of China and the abundance of natural gas and oil in Russia. Experts refer to these countries as complementary economies, partly because China-Russia trade is already heavily dominated by energy. As the EU moves to ban imports of Russian oil, Russia could become even more reliant on trade with China.
However, some Chinese companies have reportedly been hesitant to take on new projects in Russia due to concerns that they could violate international sanctions. Yet, only China has shown interest in building a cross-border gas pipeline to Europe, which is expected to boost annual trade by 50 percent by 2024, before the war in Ukraine began between Putin and Xi.
The creation of the SPFS system in Russia was intended as an alternative to the U.S.-Led SWIFT system for financial transfers. However, China has not yet joined this system, but it has been using the ruble or renminbi more frequently. Meanwhile, Russia has been increasingly using euros for its foreign trade, as part of a process known as de-dollarization. This is an effort by Russia and China to reduce their dependence on Western banking systems and their vulnerability to sanctions.
What have been turning points in the relationship?
The connection between China and Russia has experienced numerous fluctuations throughout the years, but a handful of remarkable instances are particularly noteworthy.
In order to offer guidance to the Chinese government, the Soviet Union dispatched Soviet scholars and scientists, furnished the nation with conventional weaponry, and backed China’s endeavors in creating atomic weapons. In 1950, they entered into a thirty-year alliance agreement. Chinese leader Mao Zedong regarded the Soviet Union as an exemplar for constructing a socialist society, initially uniting them due to China’s and Russia’s commitment to Marxist-Leninist communist principles.
Another country that had a treaty with the Soviet Union, China, expired in 1980. However, some analysts feared that the Soviet Union would never use nuclear weapons against China. Tensions culminated in a monthslong border conflict in 1969, in which Chinese soldiers attacked Soviet security personnel near contested river islands. Disagreements over communist ideology partly blamed for the souring relationship, as there was a debate over whether to develop relations with India and the West. This led to the split known as the Sino-Soviet split in the 1960s.
Cooperation was strengthened by pledging not to use nuclear weapons against each other, and they signed the Treaty of Friendly Cooperation and Good Neighborliness in 2001. They signed the Treaty of Friendly Cooperation and Good Neighborliness in 2001, pledging not to use nuclear weapons against each other and strengthening their cooperation. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia and China declared that they would normalize relations. This was marked by the first formal meeting between Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1989, when Gorbachev visited Beijing. Tensions began to ease in the late 1980s.
During the global financial crisis of 2008, China and Russia, as well as India and Brazil, worked together to boost their respective emerging economies. The group, formerly known as BRICS, joined South Africa in 2010. The United States and the West witnessed the collaboration between these countries.
The visit of Xi to Moscow in 2015, where more than two dozen bilateral agreements were signed with leaders, including sales of new arms, clearly signaled the deepening ties. Joseph Torigian, an American from the University of Asia, stated that the United States and many other countries had shunned business with Russia and imposed sanctions, so it was necessary to closely examine China’s turn to Asia and its increased cooperation with Russia. Although Beijing did not recognize the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the cooperation between China and Russia greatly accelerated after Russia’s annexation.
What are major challenges for the relationship?
The COVID-19 pandemic has also intensified distrust. Despite the long-standing academic and tourism exchanges between the two countries, there is a heightened sense of distrust. Russian and Chinese companies have expressed difficulties in working with each other. People in both countries have also shown a nationalistic sentiment that diminishes their trust in each other. Historically, the leaders of these countries have not been close. Many citizens, business officials, and leaders from both Russia and China maintain a mutual distrust of each other.
The provocative actions by NATO and the United States towards Russia have led Chinese officials to be blamed. Furthermore, aiding Russia’s offensive in Ukraine would also violate China’s long-standing policy of noninterference. It is known that such actions would trigger a backlash from the European Union (EU) and the United States, even though Russia reportedly asked for assistance from China. China has not publicly provided military assistance to Ukraine, putting them in an uncomfortable position due to Russia’s invasion. Chinese officials have refused to condemn Putin for the war in Ukraine.
India has enjoyed a cordial alliance with Russia, receiving the majority of its military equipment, ever since the Cold War. However, due to enduring conflicts concerning their common boundary, China remains cautious about its neighboring country. These tensions resulted in a short-lived conflict in 1962 and have contributed to other ongoing confrontations, with one currently lingering since 2020.
Introduction
They say that the alignment of countries is driven by a natural affinity for each other and a common rivalry. The depth of their strategic partnership is questioned by some experts, but the ties between the neighbors have strengthened over the past decade. Russia and China have a long and complicated history that is marked by periods of disagreement as well as solidarity.
Many foreign policy analysts say that the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022 will likely have significant consequences for how their relationship develops and the international order. Despite formal pronouncements of cooperation, officials from both countries are likely to continue distrusting each other, and the connections between people remain weak today. Tensions have flared in the past over various issues, including the extensive shared border and communist doctrine, and the COVID-19 pandemic has only added to these tensions.
Since 2012, Xi and Putin have convened on over forty occasions, showcasing a strong personal bond. They pledged to enhance collaboration on multiple fronts, affirming that their alliance has boundless possibilities, during a meeting in February 2022, mere days prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite not being formal treaty comrades, China and Russia have developed a tighter relationship and refer to one another as strategic associates. When it comes to Ukraine or Taiwan, it is improbable for them to provide military support to each other.
According to Susan A. Thornton, an expert from Yale Law School, the collaboration between China and Russia contributes to the worsening of relations with the United States. Thornton also mentions that the alliance between China and Russia is not a natural one. In recent years, U.S. Leaders have depicted China and Russia as the primary rivals of the country [PDF]. The main factor driving them closer is their shared belief that the United States poses a threat to their interests, although some experts argue that this partnership is primarily based on convenience.
How do their foreign policies and interests compare?
The political systems of Russia and China have some similarities. While Russia is a multiparty system dominated by Putin’s United Russia party, China is led by the Communist Party and operates as a one-party state. Both governments have increasingly undermined the rule of law and cracked down on domestic dissent, resulting in authoritarian regimes with concentrated power in the hands of long-serving leaders.
They have also used nonmilitary subversive tactics to undermine democratic norms and interfere in foreign elections abroad. Russia has interfered in the 2016 U.S. Presidential election through online disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, and broadcasting. Meanwhile, state-owned media organizations in China have moved to fill information gaps and publish news that is favorable to Beijing in dozens of countries.
China has focused on bolstering economic and trade development while maintaining regional security cooperation through collaboration with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Shanghai, while Russia has focused on supporting political and security stability in the former Soviet allied republics of Central Asia, even though they have different interests. They are both permanent veto-wielding members of the UN Security Council, but they do not tend to oppose each other.
However, there are major differences that shape their foreign policy goals and the tools they use to pursue them. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s economy, which is the eleventh largest in the world, has been growing, albeit with a slowdown amid the ongoing crisis. On the other hand, China’s economy, the second largest in the world, is growing despite the stagnation in recent years due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the unprecedented sanctions imposed by Western governments, which are expected to further hamper Russia’s growth for years to come. Some experts believe that these trajectories have led to diverging views within the Chinese government, as they see Russia as weak.
China has increasingly played an active role in international institutions such as the United Nations. It has worked to build diplomatic and economic ties with countries worldwide through its Belt and Road Initiative, promoting a vision of win-win cooperation. Chinese officials have touted the country’s development as a peaceful “rise,” aiming to avoid military conflicts with its allies, including the United States. Since joining the World Trade Organization in 2001, China has sought to reform and replace the current international order in order to better suit its interests, benefiting greatly from it.
According to Maria Repnikova, a professor at Georgia State University, both Russia and China contribute to global trends towards authoritarianism, although China takes a longer-term approach when it comes to competing with the West, while Russia tends to be more provocative. Experts have described Russia as a rogue state due to its actions abroad, such as cyberattacks, political assassinations, and election meddling, which have blatantly violated numerous international norms and laws.