The acquisition of nuclear weapons has been ineffective in addressing North Korea’s slowing path. The aggressive rhetoric and combined nuclear and missile tests have raised worldwide concern, especially because North Korea possesses one of the world’s largest conventional military forces. The Asian allies and the United States view North Korea as a grave security threat.
Since February 2019, talks on the elimination of nuclear weapons have remained at a standstill. The stability and safety, which are focused on maintaining regional and global alliances, will continue to be challenged by its aggressive tactics. As per evaluations from the U.S. State Department, North Korea allocates almost 25% of its gross domestic product (GDP) to its armed forces, despite being one of the least affluent nations worldwide.
The precise dimensions and power of North Korea’s nuclear stockpile remain uncertain. Analysts claim that Pyongyang has developed ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United States, as well as its allies Japan and South Korea. Additionally, these experts note that nuclear weapons have been tested on six occasions.
Experts believe that Pyongyang had enough nuclear weapons to range from fifty to forty, according to the Atomic Scientists’ Bulletin by Matt Korda and Hans M. Kristensen. In fact, a projected report by RAND Corporation in 2021 suggests that North Korea could have stockpiled around two hundred nuclear weapons by 2027. Additionally, intelligence officials estimated that North Korea had enough fissile material for more than one hundred weapons in 2017, and it is believed that they produce enough material every year to create twelve additional weapons. The primary components of nuclear weapons, such as plutonium or uranium-grade elements, are required for the production of these weapons.
Under the leadership of Kim Jong-un, the son of Kim Jong-il who took control in late 2011, there was a significant increase in the pace of the nuclear program. Kim has overseen four nuclear tests–in February 2013, January and September 2016, and September 2017–as well as 160 missile tests, surpassing the number of experiments conducted by his father and grandfather, who was the founder of North Korea, Kim Il-sung. North Korea has carried out six nuclear tests, initially in October 2006 and then in May 2009 during the tenure of the former Supreme Leader Kim Jong-il.
North Korea has conducted multiple nuclear tests, with the first explosion in 2006 being a plutonium-fueled atomic bomb. This blast was measured to have the explosive power equivalent to two kilotons of TNT. The test in 2009 had a yield of eight kilotons, while the September 2016 test had a yield of approximately thirty-five kilotons, and both the January 2016 and 2013 tests had a yield of around seventeen kilotons. According to data from the nonpartisan Washington-based Initiative Threat Nuclear, the estimated yield of the first atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 was sixteen kilotons.
The experts say that the country has significantly developed more powerful bomb-making technology, as indicated by the nuclear test carried out in September 2017. Observers conclude that the explosion likely exceeded two hundred kilotons, based on seismic activity estimates. The size of such an explosion lends credibility to North Korea’s claims of having developed a hydrogen bomb.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) expressed concern about North Korea’s preparations for a seventh nuclear test. Satellite imagery in mid-2022 showed advanced construction and indicated that North Korea had resumed the production of fissile material. However, in August 2021, the IAEA reported that North Korea had restarted nuclear material production at the Yongbyon complex, but the country announced that it would shut down its main nuclear material production site, the Yongbyon reactor complex, in the following year. Additionally, North Korea had engaged in summits with South Korea and the United States during that same year.
Some cautionary experts suggest that it is only a matter of time before North Korea completes its nuclear arsenal, thereby increasing its ability to target the United States with nuclear weapons, according to Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies.
Which projectiles has North Korea experimented with?
North Korea has tested more than one hundred ballistic missiles, including submarine-launched missiles and intercontinental-range missiles, as well as intermediate, medium, and short-range missiles, all of which have the capability to carry nuclear warheads.
In 2017, a confidential U.S. Intelligence assessment reportedly concluded that North Korea had developed the technology to miniaturize nuclear warheads and fit them onto its ballistic missiles, including its intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). It is still unclear whether these ICBMs have the capability to survive reentry and reach anywhere on the mainland U.S., But analysts estimate that the Hwasong-15, with a potential range of 8,100 miles (13,000 kilometers), could potentially reach the coast of Japan if fired on a flatter trajectory. In a test in November, Pyongyang said that the ICBM Hwasong-15 hit an altitude of 2,780 miles (4,475 kilometers) and flew about 590 miles (1,000 kilometers) above the International Space Station before landing in the sea off Japan. The regime has successfully tested intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Over the course of three years, Pyongyang executed an underwater launch of a ballistic missile, marking its inaugural trial of this nature. Following the breakdown of negotiations between Kim and U.S. President Donald Trump in Hanoi, Vietnam, North Korea recommenced testing in the middle of 2019, several months after. In late 2017, Kim ceased missile testing amidst an improvement in relations with the United States and South Korea.
North Korea broke its self-imposed moratorium on long-range missile testing in March 2022, when it fired the Hwasong-17 missile, which is claimed to be the country’s largest ICBM with an estimated range of 9,321 kilometers (15,000 miles). In January 2021, the Pukkuksong-5 was unveiled as the successor to the Hwasong-15, with an estimated range of around 3,000 kilometers (1,864 miles). Additionally, in October 2020, North Korea displayed the Pukkuksong-4, a new ballistic submarine-launched missile system that could potentially carry multiple decoys or nuclear warheads, according to analysts. Since then, North Korea has unveiled several new ballistic missiles.
In September, North Korea test-fired a launcher railcar for the first time. This launcher railcar is equipped with systems that can frustrate missile defense by making the missiles launched from it less detectable. Additionally, North Korea also tested a long-range, maneuverable cruise missile, which can make it faster and easier to launch and transport missiles. The advancement of technology has also led Pyongyang to test short-range ballistic missiles.
“There are no expectations of resuming diplomatic engagement with the United States. North Korea’s Scott A. Snyder of CFR stated that there have been no launches in any given year that have broken the record, indicating a heightened testing phase.”
There are significant unknowns surrounding the accuracy of North Korea’s ballistic missiles, raising questions about the reliability and accuracy of the provenance of the system. However, experts and defectors from North Korea say that North Korea has begun using China’s navigation system, which is similar to the GPS guidance system, because they have stated that these missiles are usually inaccurate due to their early reliance on guidance systems acquired from the Soviet Union.
Have other nations supported North Korea’s nuclear program?
According to Joseph S. Bermudez, an analyst of North Korean intelligence and defense affairs, it has been suggested that North Korea’s nuclear program could have been applied to a militarized nuclear facilities, and valuable information regarding research and visits to nuclear facilities has been shared. It is important to note that there may not have been explicit ties to the development of weapons, although North Korean scientists have benefited from academic exchanges with their Chinese and Soviet counterparts. In the 1970s, North Korea and China cooperated on various defense projects, including the production and development of ballistic missiles. Additionally, North Korea received assistance from Moscow in the form of nuclear fuel, light-water reactor designs, and research on missile and nuclear reactors. However, it is predominantly an indigenous program with external assistance primarily during the late 1950s to the 1980s.
It remains unclear whether Abdul Qadeer Khan, the Pakistani scientist who had access to Pakistani centrifuge technology and acquired designs and technology from North Korea, acted on behalf of the Pakistani government, either indirectly or directly, in enabling North Korea to pursue the route of uranium enrichment and operate centrifuges, thereby gaining the know-how to develop nuclear weapons. Khan’s illicit nuclear material and technology network also sold to buyers such as Libya and Iran. Pakistan likely obtained missile technology from China in exchange and also received designs for a uranium warhead from North Korea. During the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), both Iran and Iraq were working on ballistic missiles, and nuclear assistance began between the two countries’ scientists. In the 1970s, Pakistan also emerged as an important military collaborator with North Korea.
Bermudez asserts that merchandise is frequently exchanged multiple times prior to reaching the possession of North Koreans, and these networks have relocated to Asia and Africa, previously concentrated in Europe. Since the 1960s, North Korea has established undercover networks for the acquisition of technology, resources, and blueprints in order to enhance its conventional and nuclear armament initiatives. External entities have also aided Pyongyang’s program by unlawfully transporting metal constituents required for centrifuge assembly and nuclear weapon development.
What disciplinary measures has North Korea encountered?
The United States, with its proposal, accused the nations of further provoking North Korea and stated that previous sanctions had made little impact on North Korea’s behavior. China and Russia vetoed a Security Council resolution in May 2022, which proposed stricter sanctions, marking the first veto in favor of North Korea in fifteen years. Although current sanctions have limited North Korea’s access to resources, it is challenging to regulate all international cargo shipments. Additional measures include inspecting cargo destined for North Korea and imposing restrictions on certain luxury goods and foreign trade. The sale of materials and technology that could be used for ballistic missiles or nuclear weapons, as well as any financial assistance, is also prohibited. The Security Council aims to change Pyongyang’s behavior through subsequent resolutions that gradually increase sanctions. As a response to North Korea’s actions, including missile tests, its first nuclear test in 2006, and withdrawal from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 2003, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted resolutions condemning North Korea’s actions and imposing sanctions on the country.
Given the reported constraints on North Korea’s economy, there are fears that North Korea could resort to enhancing its nuclear potential by selling more nuclear knowledge and materials. It has been reported that North Korea has secretly transferred “technology, know-how, ballistic-missile-related equipment, and nuclear-related technology” to countries including Yemen, Vietnam, United Arab Emirates, Syria, Myanmar, Libya, Iran, and Egypt, thus establishing a record of sharing nuclear technology and missile sales.
Does North Korea have any additional weapons of mass destruction?
North Korea is believed to have an arsenal of chemical weapons, including nerve agents like VX and sarin, as well as phosgene, chlorine, mustard, and sulfur. The regime reportedly has the capability to produce these toxins using a variety of conventional missiles, aircraft, rockets, and shells. It is estimated that they have stockpiled between 2,500 and 5,000 tons of chemical weapons, and the army also manufactures its own protective suits and detection systems for chemical warfare.
North Korea is believed to possess some biological weapons capabilities, although it has acceded to the Geneva Protocol in 1988, which prohibits the use of poisonous and asphyxiating gases in warfare. It has also become a party to the Biological Weapons Convention, a treaty that bans the acquisition, development, production, and stockpiling of biological weapons, including pathogens such as the plague, pest, smallpox, and anthrax.
What are the conventional military capabilities of North Korea?
It requires all citizens to serve in the military, and “the supreme honor and duty of citizens is the defense of the National” states the North Korean constitution [PDF]. More than six hundred thousand others serve as reserve soldiers, accounting for about 5 percent of the total population. With nearly 1.3 million active personnel, North Korea’s military is the fourth largest in the world.
The U.S. Department of State estimates that the North Korean regime spends an average of $4 billion annually on its military, which is nearly a quarter of what its neighbors and adversaries in North Korea spend. However, experts say that despite Pyongyang’s constant threat to its southern neighbor, Seoul, and its forward-deployed military position, the regime operates with aging technology and equipment.
According to a 2021 report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the North Korean military possesses approximately 5,500 multiple-rocket launchers and 2,500 armored vehicles, including 4,000 tanks, 70 submarines, 280 amphibious vessels, 400 combatant vessels, 290 helicopters, and 550 combat-capable aircraft. North Korea has also deployed conventional missiles aimed at Japan and its neighboring countries in an attempt to deter potential attacks. Additionally, North Korea has stationed munitions along its border with South Korea and near the border.
Does it present a cybersecurity risk?
Experts say that North Korea’s capabilities in cyber warfare have significantly advanced over the years, posing a more immediate threat than its military programs. Hackers from the private and financial institutions, media, and government around the world are increasingly using sophisticated tools to target these institutions.
Not accessible in North Korea, cyber criminals study at prestigious science and engineering institutions in China and receive training at exclusive North Korean technology schools. During the 1980s and 1990s, Pyongyang depended on assistance from China and the Soviet Union. In order to enhance its capability for cyberattacks, Pyongyang has allocated substantial resources and effort.
South Korea and Japan continue to be targeted by the North Korean cyber unit known as Kimsuky. Government agencies, think tanks, and individuals working in foreign policy and national security in the United States are also at risk. The U.S. Department of Justice has charged a North Korean man believed to be a member of the Lazarus Group, which is suspected of being backed by North Korea. This individual is believed to have been involved in several high-profile attacks, including the Wannacry ransomware attack. North Korea has demonstrated its ability to infiltrate and compromise critical infrastructure systems, including healthcare networks, railway systems, and aviation networks, in Europe, Asia, and the United States. The country has also been linked to cyberattacks on media outlets, banks, and military command centers in South Korea, with the breach of South Korea’s cyber military command in December being attributed to North Korea.
In 2019, North Korea illicitly acquired over $2 billion through cybercrime, and a report by the United Nations revealed that North Korean individuals targeted entities in over thirty nations for cryptocurrency theft in 2020. The cyber infrastructure in Pyongyang is now primarily dedicated to cybertheft, serving as a significant income stream for the regime and its weapons initiative, by pilfering funds from financial institutions and cryptocurrency trading platforms.
What motivates the militarization of North Korea?
In order to counteract the perceived dangers it faces, the North Korean government holds the belief that the sole means of ensuring the survival of the nation is by building up unbalanced military capabilities. According to Pyongyang, there is a possibility of an assault from unfriendly external forces such as South Korea and the United States. The armed forces have a crucial role in political matters and their influence has consistently grown under the rule of the Kim dynasty. The fundamental guiding principles of North Korea have been self-reliance (juche) and prioritizing the military (songun politics).
Despite Pyongyang’s reputation as a pariah state, Kim Jong-un remains committed to a national strategy that combines nuclear capabilities and economic development. The North Korean economy, with its limited means to acquire much-needed hard currency, has been further cut off from the global economy, leaving its impoverished population of 25 million struggling. The regime in Pyongyang has grown increasingly isolated, largely due to its ongoing pursuit of nuclear weapons and other military provocations since the Korean War armistice decades ago.
Kim’s reputation is strengthened by the nuclear program, which fulfills two objectives: discouraging outside dangers and solidifying his authority by showcasing undeniable military power. Consequently, Kim has encountered difficulties in fulfilling his economic commitments.
Denuclearization has not resulted in it, although the rate of testing in North Korea has temporarily slowed in the past due to diplomatic engagement. However, Pyongyang seems to have been emboldened by Kim’s commitment to military strengthening, as punitive measures have been taken against them. Instead of conducting tests, Kim Jong-un has vowed to focus on the development of missile and nuclear power, leading the country to shed its ambiguous surrounding language.