Wilson’s progress is the most vital factor in the team’s success so far, despite the low bar of his second season being unattainable. The Jets are hoping that Wilson can finally start showing signs of the tantalizing talent that prompted them to draft him with the overall 2nd pick. They are praying that Wilson can at least provide the competency they are hoping for.
Previously, Jets supporters became accustomed to observing a quarterback distinct from the one Wilson is hopeful that the Jets are acquiring knowledge from, under the guidance of Aaron Rodgers, following a year of instruction.
Wilson is indeed on the correct trajectory, as some have witnessed so far, but there is still an exceptionally long way to go.
Wilson’s skill in executing layups was arguably his most challenging problem during his initial two seasons. Specifically, I have observed a significant improvement in one aspect of Wilson’s performance throughout the year 2023, both in the preseason and in his first game against Buffalo.
Despite being consistent, Wilson struggled to perform even the most basic tasks when he found it extremely challenging to find his rhythm. Wilson frequently mishandled easy opportunities, whether it was a short pass in the flat or a straightforward screen pass. Over his first two seasons, Wilson frustratingly failed to make very simple throws.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Wilson ranked last among 33 qualified quarterbacks (with a minimum of 80 layup attempts) by a significant margin. He only managed to complete 73.6% of his passes that were thrown within 10 yards downfield to a receiver who had at least three yards of separation from the closest defender (referred to as “layups”). In comparison, the league average for this category was 86.0%.
To show how far behind the rest of the league Wilson was, his completion rate was 73.6%, which ranked him 32nd, behind Fields Justin at 2.9%. The gap between Stafford Matthew, ranked 19th, and Brady Tom, ranked eighth, was larger than the one between Darnold Sam, ranked 26th, and Wilson, ranked 7.6%. Even more shocking, Wilson was ranked second with a rating of 90.4%, behind Tagovailoa at 83.0%.
The average percentage for the league was 85.9%. They were the only two eligible quarterbacks below the 80% threshold. This rate remained the second-lowest among 33 qualifiers, only surpassing Justin Fields (78.3%). Although his completion rate on easy shots increased to 79.3%, Wilson still performed poorly due to his low performance in his rookie year. Despite showing significant improvement in his second year.
Up to this point in 2023, we have observed Wilson persistently demonstrate steady improvement in his reliability on straightforward passes.
In the season opener, Wilson successfully made 87.5% (7-of-8) of his layups against Buffalo. In the preseason, he made 83.9% (26-of-31) of his layups.
Wilson has a layup completion rate of 84.6% in the 2023 season opener, which is not far off from the overall average of approximately 86% between the preseason and the regular season, typical for the league.
It appeared almost incomprehensible two years ago. He is on the brink of reaching league-average consistency when it comes to completing layups, taking enormous steps forward in consecutive seasons. However, Wilson started his career in this category with an absurdly low point.
In the 2023 season (which includes preseason and regular season), he has further enhanced it by an additional 5.3% (reaching 84.6%) compared to the 2022 regular season. Wilson made a 5.7% improvement in his layup completion rate from the 2022 regular season (79.3%) to the 2021 regular season (73.6%).
It’s almost impossible to hit four out of five layups, even if you can’t do it. However, it is a realistic goal for Wilson to perform at a level close to the starter league-average now. The Jets would love for Wilson to become the superstar they thought he could be when they chose him as their second overall pick.
The early results show promise, however, Wilson seems capable of consistently executing the straightforward passes at a satisfactory level now. He must maintain this performance for more than just a few preseason games and one regular season game.
Everything else will become significantly simpler for him if Wilson maintains a consistent conversion rate with the free throws. A solid footing to build upon is his steady advancement in the layup sector. Wilson needs to enhance various other aspects in order to reach the level of an average starting quarterback in the league, although there are still numerous areas for improvement.