Russia risks war with NATO in Black Sea, former top commander in Europe warns

The former NATO Supreme Allied Commander in Europe is warning that by intercepting ships in international waters, NATO risks sparking a direct war with Moscow and imposing an economic stranglehold on Ukraine.

Taking action to avoid Ukraine’s economy from being severely damaged may compel Kyiv’s allies, such as the boarding of a Turkish vessel on Sunday, informed POLITICO that tensions at sea, former U.S. Admiral James Stavridis, who commanded the alliance’s troops in the region from 2009 to 2013.

Stavridis expressed, “The tensions between NATO and the Russian Federation pose a genuine threat of escalating into a naval conflict due to Russia’s activities in the international waters of the Black Sea.” He continued, “As Russia enforces an unlawful blockade to suffocate Ukraine’s economy, NATO will not solely shoulder the responsibility of providing weapons and financial aid.”

The Kremlin has been criticized for resorting to tactics equivalent to “piracy” in order to undermine trade between Europe and Ukraine, with NATO heavyweight Stavridis condemning their actions. Sensitively, the Ukrainian foreign minister identified the cargo ship, flagged from Palau, that was inspected off the coast of southwestern Turkey in the Black Sea, and the Russian defense ministry confirmed that warning shots were fired before the boarding by Şükrü Okan, Turkey’s Ministry of Defense, on Tuesday.

Stavridis expressed that in the event of Russia initiating the seizure of vessels or attempting to intimidate them, it is probable that NATO will take action by providing assistance in establishing a humanitarian pathway for shipping. By having NATO combat aircraft patrolling the airspace and potentially having NATO warships accompanying, the alliance would be able to safeguard the safe passage of vessels travelling to and from the Ukrainian port of Odesa.

Ever since Russia unilaterally pulled out of a U.N. Grain agreement in July and cautioned that vessels journeying to Ukrainian harbors might be considered as military objectives, tensions in the Black Sea have significantly intensified. In retaliation, Ukraine demonstrated its readiness to aim at Russian energy shipments using a naval drone assault on a tanker, and proclaimed the areas surrounding Russia’s Black Sea harbors as a “zone of war risk” starting from August 23rd.

NATO stated that it would enhance its surveillance and reconnaissance efforts in the Black Sea area, utilizing maritime patrol aircraft and drones. This decision was made in light of Russia’s aggressive bombardment of Ukrainian ports, which was also mentioned by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg as evidence of Russia’s provocative and hazardous behavior in the Black Sea. NATO’s response was prompted by Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal.

Stavridis argued that the Russian Black Sea fleet would be militarily outmatched, provided there is assistance from NATO allies that share a border with the Black Sea, specifically Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is reportedly set to meet with Putin at the end of the month to discuss the likely trade agenda, stating that the tension in the Black Sea, which the National Security Council has described as “not beneficial to anyone,” and has urged Turkey to rejoin the grain deal with Russia.

Instead of extending the agreement in every situation, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that his government would “decline to extend” the agreement and choose to supply grain free of charge to specific African countries. The grain deal, which was disrupted by the U.N., Was acknowledged for guaranteeing the safe transportation of 32.9 million tons of crops from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, preventing the threat of famine in impoverished nations until Russia’s departure.

Moscow’s defense ministry cautioned that all vessels sailing in the waters of the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports will be considered potential carriers of military cargo. In what appears to be an aim at the grain trade, missile attacks have consistently impacted the Ukrainian Danube river ports of Reni and Izmail, situated only a short distance from the border with Romania, a member of NATO. Along the Black Sea coastline, Moscow’s armed forces have targeted Ukrainian grain storage facilities, resulting in the destruction of an estimated 60,000 tonnes of food. Additionally, Russia has carried out missile strikes on the Ukrainian Danube river ports of Reni and Izmail, which are located just a few hundred meters away from the border with Romania, a NATO member, seemingly with the intention of disrupting the grain trade.

Despite the danger posed by Moscow, Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov revealed on Wednesday that the initial vessel, a container ship flying the Hong Kong flag, had embarked on its journey. Kyiv has established a “temporary corridor” for sea traffic from its southern ports, enabling ships that have been restricted to the harbor for several weeks to access global waters.