The World Weather Attribution group, a research organization based at Imperial College, London, determined through analysis that the scorching, arid, and gusty conditions that fueled the fires in Quebec were at least twice as probable and 20% more severe due to climate change caused by human activities during the start of summer. Recent studies indicate that climate change likely exacerbated some of those fires.
According to Clair Barnes, a climate scientist at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London and the main author of the study, the weather that amplifies the danger of fires is “becoming more extreme as the condition of the climate worsens.” Unless we halt the release of fossil fuels, this trend will persist.
The control of wildfires is extremely challenging for firefighting teams due to the rapid spread caused by high winds. These fires can also cause flames to burn hotter and taller as they draw moisture from the forest floor and trees, creating hotter air temperatures. According to Mike Flannigan, a fire scientist at the University of British Columbia in Thompson Rivers, more intense weather leads to much more dangerous burns. The study examined the impact of human-caused climate change on fire weather conditions, which are likely to increase the likelihood of sparks igniting and turning into a blaze.
Flanigan expresses concern, stating, “What concerns me the most is the rise in severity.” As the air in the room becomes filled with smoke from nearby fires, he coughs while at his residence in Kamloops, British Columbia. Dealing with fires directly is becoming increasingly difficult, and we are witnessing a greater number of incidents with heightened intensity. Flannigan highlights, “Almost three-quarters of Canada’s fires, typically the most severe ones, are responsible for nearly all of the destruction.”
Fire can also have positive effects
In the past, there were periods when fires were even more widespread and frequent than in the modern era. Scientists can look into the past thousands of years by examining ancient charcoal fragments and tree rings preserved at the bottom of lakes, which allows them to witness the vast burns that have ripped across the region’s forests at least every few hundred years. It is crucial for the forests in this region to evolve with fire and have a symbiotic relationship with it in order to stay healthy. Martin Girardin, a forest ecologist with the Canadian Forest Service, emphasizes the importance of remembering that fires are an integral part of Canada’s Eastern ecology and the destruction they leave in their wake.
Scientists like Girardin expect that in some cases, the decisions of forest management to push modern fires to the historic edge of bounds may increase the risk of fire, in tandem with human-driven climate change that has occurred over centuries or decades.
“With the phenomenon of climate change, we should achieve or surpass those levels,” he states.
A summer filled with flames
Since 1959, the annual area burned in the country has doubled. That’s more than twice as much as the next-most destructive season in 1989. This summer, fires have burned an area roughly the size of Florida.
Erni Sandy, an expert in disaster and fire risk, states that Service Forest Canada is expanding its footprint to cover more ground and help people in the face of increasingly common wildfires. However, it is important to note that the fires have not only burned forests, but also impacted communities.
Millions of people across North America have had to evacuate due to dense smoke breathed in from damaging fires. Nearly 200,000 people have had to evacuate this season. Four firefighters have died this season, she says. Every Canadian has been affected in some way by the current fire season or another.
Dorothy Heinrich, a disaster risk specialist from the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center in the Netherlands, who participated in the study, reveals that in July, a significant 75% of individuals under evacuation directives were of Indigenous descent. Indigenous populations have borne the brunt of the impact in numerous fire-affected areas.
Experts have long predicted that the increasing frequency and severity of wildfires in Canada would contribute to climate change sooner than anticipated.
“What we’re seeing this year is the signal of what we were anticipating to happen maybe 20 years from now,” says Girardin.
Approximately every 25 years, these hazardous circumstances are now expected to repeat, they discovered. Fire conditions have been completely transformed by the impact of climate change, primarily caused by the combustion of fossil fuels. The scientists contrasted this with the actual weather patterns experienced in 2023 – the intense heat and prolonged drought that affected Canada from January onwards, along with the record-breaking hottest May and June ever recorded – in order to assess the extent to which climate change has altered fire conditions. The analysis conducted by World Weather Attribution utilized climate models to simulate a world in the absence of climate change caused by human activities.
Cross-country wildfires may make a comeback
Similar to this summer, wildfires frequently ravaged BC and Quebec, spanning from Manitoba to Ontario, spanning the entire country during the 1700s and 1800s. Such extensive devastation has been uncommon in the last 150 years, resulting in constant strain on Canada’s firefighting capabilities. This summer, wildfires have spread across the entire country.
Earlier studies discovered that the occurrence of fires is anticipated to rise to a greater extent in the eastern region of the nation, which is comparatively less equipped to handle significant fire incidents, as opposed to the western part.
The forests in the densely packed regions of the prime 2023 are experiencing an explosive burning, due to the unprecedented season of drought and heat. Alizadeh Reza Mohammad, a climate expert at McGill University, states that the forests in the eastern region are highly susceptible to changes in moisture.
The historic fire season, extending potentially beyond its bounds, is predicted to experience several weeks of dry and hot weather according to weather forecasts. Canada’s wildfire season, which typically begins winding down in autumn, would start soon.