CBN News: Let’s start this half hour in Asia where Taiwan is preparing for conflict with China.
CBN News: A commonly used phrase among the locals is Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow.
ABC News reported that President Biden stated, for the first time, that the United States would deploy soldiers to protect Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.
Xi Jinping: [Speaking in Chinese].
Ratcheting up have tensions those years recent in and lines fault major world’s the of one are Taiwan and China between tensions.
The U.S. Policy on Taiwan has intentionally maintained strategic ambiguity for decades in order to create confusion and make matters more complicated. China claims that Taiwan is an integral part of its history and has felt the need to reclaim it from day one.
Mixed up in all of this are the Taiwanese people themselves, who of course have their own nuanced perspectives on the situation.
Why is this and Sierra Gabrielle is my name. Today matters. It is a glimpse into what a Chinese invasion could mean for the world and a crash course on Taiwan.
Comparison by small look D-Day makes that something, operation military modern complex most the be would Taiwan of invasion Chinese A: SACKS.
On the show notes page, make sure to visit it. This particular episode served as the foundation for the Council’s latest report on Taiwan, overseen by David Sacks – the expert on Taiwan and China at the Council. You actually listened to him at the beginning of the episode, introducing himself as David Sacks.
We know that China has the capability to put at risk U.S. Aircraft carriers, including their assets, and it is hard to determine whether China would actually use these capabilities. If a conflict were to occur, it could result in thousands of casualties and the U.S. Aircraft carriers could potentially be seen at the bottom of the ocean. This is a difficult situation to think about, especially when considering Taiwan’s defense, as China has advanced fighter jets and advanced ballistic anti-ship missiles. It is unknown what would happen if two nuclear-armed powers directly faced off against each other. In comparison, the U.S. Casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq would pale in comparison to the potential casualties in Taiwan. If the United States were to intervene in Taiwan, it is likely that both sides would experience large-scale casualties. We should have no doubt that we are talking about significant casualties on both sides.
It is possible, but not inevitable. Taiwan has the power to prevent an invasion from China in its global economy tracks, even without a military conflict between China and the United States.
You should have no doubt that this would have profound implications for your life. Some might think that this is just a problem of our own, but I don’t think so. We should keep in mind that there would be massive human costs for the twenty-three million people of Taiwan. And I think that it would have chilling effects on other young democracies around the world. The annexation of Taiwan and the Chinese assault on Taiwan would extinguish a democracy of twenty-three million people. If China did the same to Taiwan, we would have seen a country attacking a democratic neighbor to grab territory. The impact of this would be, without a doubt, an impact on the international order. I would argue that it would be incredibly difficult to reverse the economic impact and recover. We would be talking about a global economic depression, not just a few trillion dollars off the global GDP in the first year. The moment a Chinese invasion or blockade starts, it would halt the busiest shipping lanes in the world – SACKS.
If I was wondering, could you humor me with some fundamentals? I may not necessarily know much beyond the headlines, but of course, I think I have heard a lot about Taiwan, especially from Americans.
I believe Maryland is not a large island, it is not a small island either. Taiwan is an island off the southeastern coast of China, about a hundred miles away.
James Lin is an assistant professor at the University of Washington in Taiwan, where he conducts research and teaches international studies.
Taiwan is regarded as a highly democratic society, and it is ranked as one of the most politically advanced countries by many experts, such as the V-Dem indexes. Among the various types of democracies, Taiwan stands out as a multi-party democracy. So, LIN:
SIERRA: Is Taiwan a separate nation, or is it a constituent of China?
China, specifically Taiwan, is a part that we have not yet determined the endpoint of. The status of Taiwan is still undetermined, making it difficult for us to understand our position. Essentially, Taiwan is a renegade province of China, but it has its own government, currency, military, and acts like its own country. If necessary, the United States must use force to restore Taiwan to the People’s Republic of China. However, if you live on the island of Taiwan, you will see that it is very much its own country. Taiwanese people elect their own government and have their own currency. If you walk down the streets of Taipei or anywhere in Taiwan, it feels like a separate country. Unfortunately, the United States does not recognize Taiwan as an independent sovereign country, and most other countries in the world do not recognize it either. So, whether or not Taiwan is recognized as a country depends on who you ask.
Diplomats around the globe tread cautiously when it comes to discussing Taiwan due to China’s extreme sensitivity to the matter and the high stakes involved.
In fact, we usually don’t do this, but in this moment, Richard Haass, our former president, subtly emphasizes the ambiguous stance of the United States, which Secretary of State Antony Blinken reinforces tactfully, as evident from a recent event at CFR.
Why aren’t we basically telling you that we’re doing things to increase your understanding, in order to increase your understanding? And what is our policy? So the staff of the White House has walked back four times. So if Taiwan were attacked by China, the President of the United States, your boss, has said that the U.S. Would help defend Taiwan.
Antony BLINKEN: Richard Holbrooke was an outstanding diplomat and a genuine visionary.
HAASS: Certainly, sir?
This remains unchanged and will not alter. We persist in following the One China policy, which is founded on the Three Communiques, the Taiwan Relations Act, and the Six Assurances. BLINKEN
In an op-ed written by Senator Joe Biden in the Washington Post, he criticized President Bush for his lack of discipline and clear views on important matters. He also mentioned the monumental decision faced by President Biden regarding Taiwan’s defense and whether or not to come to its aid if attacked by China. I fully understand the implications of what he said and I don’t think we should overlook President Biden’s gaffes and statements. Even though the Biden administration has walked back on occasions, it is important for me to note that I endorse the strategic clarity of calling out China if it were to attack Taiwan. There have been questions about the strategic ambiguity and whether or not there is a consistent policy towards China. However, the administration has maintained a policy that is different from the “One China” policy, which suggests that there is still some ambiguity in their approach.
SIERRA: How have other nations addressed this circumstance?
So, there has been a recent change in the informal manner in which relations are conducted in this country, and Taiwan is not recognized as part of it for the most part. Beijing has sometimes attempted to convince them to switch recognition in different ways. Usually, these small nations in Latin America or the South Pacific continue to maintain diplomatic relations only with Taiwan – a small number of just over a dozen. Therefore, most countries today deal with Taiwan on an unofficial basis.
Taiwan needs to be cautious when engaging with many countries at the same time, as it cannot afford to openly acknowledge itself as a separate country from China. This dilemma is also faced by many other countries in the world. It is not just the United States, but many others as well.
Where are we? We have to resort to history, in case it doesn’t work, and engage in a potential war, and comprehend this peculiar equilibrium that we have.
Presently, the nation is ruled by the Chinese Communist Party, which took power after a violent internal conflict in China subsequent to World War II. Having experienced multiple instances of colonization by Japan in 1895, the Dutch, and the Chinese, Taiwan has been inhabited by indigenous communities for countless centuries and they continue to hold significant importance in the island’s cultural fabric.
The Qing Dynasty had ruled China for almost four hundred years, but in the year twenty-two of the civil war and revolution, a Generalissimo and a revolutionary guerilla fought for communism and nationalism, striving to bring an end to war-lordism and republicanism, marking the coming of a new era.
In 1949, Chiang Kai-shek and the KMT and his supporters withdraw to Taiwan as Mao proclaims the creation of the People’s Republic of China that identical year. The Nationalists are defeated by the Communists in the Civil War for various reasons. The United States supports Chiang Kai-shek and the Nationalists because they were partners during World War II. Following World War II, the Chinese Civil War truly materializes, opposing Mao’s Communists against Chiang Kai-shek and the Nationalists.
Mao Zedong: [Speaking in Mandarin].
In the summer of 1950, the Korean War breaks out, marking the subsequent significant event that occurs and alters the trajectory of history. Consequently, the Truman administration essentially accepts the reality that Mao will eventually seize control of Taiwan and integrate it into the PRC. However, in essence, Chiang Kai-shek is defeated in the civil war, and we desired to limit our losses. There was a feeling that he disregarded our counsel despite the substantial assistance and support we had provided. By that time, the United States had grown frustrated with Chiang Kai-shek. SACKS.
With a prompt and courageous decision, the United States has already taken action by providing additional assistance to French Indo-China, reinforcements to the Philippines, and ordering the Seventh Fleet to safeguard Formosa. Furthermore, prioritizing air power, the United States has demonstrated its commitment. The United Nations, acting on behalf of the free world, has expressed their response.
Taiwan’s position in the Asia-Pacific remained undetermined and they were awaiting the restoration of peace. The Truman Administration wanted to ensure that Taiwan remained separated and locked away, while also preventing Mao’s communist forces from attacking South Korea and seeing North Korea become communist. The United States, in an effort to prevent Mao from taking advantage of this opportunity, sent their Navy into the Taiwan Strait. President Truman made the decision to send the Navy.
When Japan returns to its place in the family of nations, the people of secure Korea and the united and free nations should now find ways to settle other problems in the Pacific that threaten peace.
During the Cold War, when the United States was in a high-level conflict with the Soviet Union, Henry Kissinger, as the national security advisor to President Nixon, came up with a strategy to isolate the Soviet Union and eventually engage with China. Kissinger asked Zhou Enlai, the Prime Minister of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), what China’s position would be on Taiwan. With this in mind, Kissinger and Nixon went to Beijing to secretly negotiate a rapprochement, essentially a recognition switch, to replace the official representation of the Republic of China with the People’s Republic of China. Many countries and people saw this as a turning point, and in 1971, during the United Nations General Assembly, they voted to recognize the People’s Republic of China and stay in Beijing, where the government of the People’s Republic of China was based. At that time, people began to realize that Beijing’s government represented the People’s Republic of China.
I have taken this action because of my profound conviction that all nations will benefit from a better relationship and a reduction in tensions between the People’s Republic of China and the United States. I have taken this action to seek a new relationship with the People’s Republic of China, without compromising our old friendships. I want to put this policy in place in the clearest possible context: Richard Nixon.
China’s One China policy, which is a core tenet of its diplomatic relations with Taiwan, has evolved over time. It has built a lot of ambiguity into its policy, but it is important to recognize that Taiwan is part of China from China’s perspective. However, it does not endorse or recognize Taiwan as a separate entity. Importantly, China acknowledges that Taiwan is part of China, and the United States essentially recognizes the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal government of China.
Jimmy Carter: The US government recognizes the Chinese stance that there is only one China.
Bill Clinton: I am of the opinion that both China and Taiwan desire to continue on the course towards success and communication.
George W. Bush: The matter that truly represents the concern of the future, in numerous aspects, is China.
Barack Obama: There is likely no two-sided connection that holds more importance.
Donald Trump: I am unsure as to why we must adhere to a One China policy.
We agree with Joe Biden that it is not just appropriate to use force, but also with the idea that it can be taken with a policy by China.
The policy of One China has remained unchanged, and aided in maintaining peace, throughout the tenure of every president since Richard Nixon.
Many view the American Institute in Taiwan as an informal embassy that manages America’s unofficial connection with Taiwan, established through the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) enacted by Congress in 1979. Not only the executive branch, but other government sectors also found the China-Taiwan relationship intriguing.
The United States is not obligated to defend Taiwan, even though it has the capacity to do so. However, the United States also pledges to provide Taiwan with defensive arms, expressing serious concern for the security and peace of the Western Pacific region, which is under threat. The United States believes that any effort to determine Taiwan’s future should be done through peaceful means, according to the Taiwan Relations Act.
Nancy Pelosi, the former Speaker of the House, took a trip to Taiwan last year, marking the first time a high-level U.S. Official had traveled there in over 30 years. It is rare for Taiwanese and American leaders to visit each other, so when it does happen, it tends to make headlines. This visit resulted in a cautious and delicate interaction, as it was not an embassy visit but rather a trip organized by a nonprofit organization. While it is not an obligation, it is the right of the U.S. To defend Taiwan.
China was not very pleased about it.
PBS NewsHour: Upon Pelosi’s arrival, China declared the commencement of air and naval military drills surrounding the island.
PBS NewsHour: Prior to the visit, China placed its military on high-alert, and flew combat aircrafts near Taiwan.
What are the desires of Taiwanese individuals? Consequently, Taiwan, the small entity situated amidst powerful nations, serves as our starting point for comprehensive examination. Sierra, my intention is to navigate this complex scenario.
The majority has become Taiwanese, dropping off their Chinese identity, where this is a dramatic shift in the past thirty years. Only about 3 percent identify as Chinese, while about 60 percent identify as Taiwanese in Taiwan. Today, in 2023, the majority of people identify as both Taiwanese and Chinese, with around 30 percent identifying only as Chinese. When the first polls were conducted in 1992, there was a large number of people who identified as Chinese and only as Chinese. This tells us that there is an understanding of pragmatism and a threat about sovereignty, where many Taiwanese people actually prefer some sort of greater assertion of their sovereignty or even some form of independence. Can you see the dramatic changes that it brings and what outcome would you prefer? If Beijing didn’t threaten us, what kind of hypothetical questions would be asked and if there have been other polls, would you see how it plays out and recognize that there is a significant threat to their existence? So I would say that a significant number of Taiwanese people recognize that there is a threat to their existence and would want to maintain the status quo, around 88 percent of them, if you add all the answers to maintain the status quo together. Maybe changing the name to something like the Republic of Taiwan is a red line, and it means that we are no longer officially the Republic of China, so maybe we should seek independence or unify with China? What should Taiwan do about its relationship with Beijing? This is a biannual poll conducted by the National Chengchi University, which is one of the top universities in Taiwan. So, what should Taiwan do about its relationship with Beijing? Should we maintain the status quo indefinitely or should we decide at a later date? And should we ask these questions, or should we just maintain the status quo indefinitely?
When asked about their preference in the absence of any danger, the majority of individuals express a desire for a certain level of autonomy. However, it is notable that a significant number of Taiwanese people would rather maintain the current state of affairs instead of risking their freedom in a situation characterized by danger and heightened tensions.
In the event of such a situation, the United States will need to make a decision on whether to protect Taiwan or not. It is up to Beijing to determine if they will launch an invasion on Taiwan. The United States is closely monitoring these developments.
China, its strongest opponent, would the U.S. Endanger a conflict concerning Taiwan. Thus, why in the world would the U.S. Acknowledge Taiwan as an independent nation? Taiwan is considerably distant from the U.S. Mainland. Throughout the past year, there has been an increasing amount of information indicating that the U.S. May be heading towards a potential war over Taiwan. Therefore, let’s discuss the United States. SIERRA: So, I simply want to clarify this.
It would make allies of the U.S. Incredibly difficult. It would be far closer to the Philippines. China would be less than one hundred miles from Japan. But if China annexes Taiwan and stations its military on the island, all of these changes would be nullified. And it is now very difficult for China to project military power beyond its shores, even threatening the United States or its allies. And it is right now the first island chain’s integrity that is very important. Yeah, it’s a very important question and something that we should have a robust debate about and discuss in the United States. SACKS: Input.
Since the Second World War, the nation has had the capability to exert influence in the Pacific, a capacity that the United States may potentially forfeit. Through intimidating smaller neighboring nations regarding territorial disputes in the South China Sea and constructing facilities in contested regions, China has been progressively strengthening its military position in the Pacific for a significant period of time.
It is incredibly difficult to recover from the economic depression caused by a global pandemic that shaves trillions of dollars off the global GDP. Regardless of whether the United States chooses to intervene on behalf of Taiwan if China fails to deter, we will see a global economic depression with trillions of dollars shaved off the GDP, emphasizing the importance of deterrence. Around 70 percent of all semiconductors manufactured in Taiwan, and over 90 percent of the world’s most advanced semiconductors are made in Taiwan. So, when thinking about how to compete with China in the long-term, our most important advantage is the asymmetrical advantage we have in the region, which has major implications for U.S. Partnerships and allies. I think it is essential to think about how we can accommodate China’s influence and interests in the Indo-Pacific, considering the fact that China is the new dominant power in the region. To me, it seems like they essentially decide how we live and accommodate China’s interests. China’s closer moves and interests could also involve pursuing some form of strategic autonomy, which may likely include increasing spending and capabilities in defense and developing their own nuclear weapons. Japan, as a powerful country, seeks to accommodate China’s interests while also ensuring its own defense. If China takes over Taiwan, Japan has grave doubts and views it as a critical interest for Japanese leaders. We need to reckon with the calculus of our allies and strategic thinking in the event of a Chinese takeover of Taiwan.
Take a look at it, you should. Taiwan depends on the entire globe daily, delving extensively into the functioning of the technology industry. We thoroughly explore the field of semiconductors and their significance to the United States. In fact, we dedicated an entire episode to this topic.
If China were to launch an invasion, it is an extremely tangible possibility that the United States might opt to intervene; when considering all these factors collectively, this is the ultimate conclusion.
So, let’s address a bit of the logistical question: why would we even consider defending Taiwan, which is hundreds of miles away from China, when we are thousands of miles away? Let’s acknowledge that the U.S. Commits to defending Taiwan from a potential invasion.
“You have achieved success,” say, and hands our up throw just should we basically, and if China decides to go to achieve ‘the assess should we that But steps need to be taken to address those shortcomings, for example, where our defense industrial base is not shown to be in Ukraine’s war where it is needed. The 1950 Korean War and the 1979 war with Vietnam were the last times China fought in combat, and most of these officers have never seen them, but the PLA is still very strong, as shown in the paper on their military modernization overseen by the remarkable People’s Liberation Army of China. Yes, we should also note that China can bring strengths over the Taiwan Strait, where we can really operate together and build our ability to work with our Japanese allies if we need to bring the PLA to bear. And if Japan’s full support is there, this is a big question mark. Would Japan’s capabilities advanced as well as 50,000 troops in the United States be relevant for a conflict over Taiwan? Yes, we’re far away, but don’t underestimate the Chinese leadership’s difficulty in pulling off this role in Japan. So, I think it’s critical to think about Japan’s role in a conflict from the U.S. Perspective. Now, this pulling off difficulty underestimates the leadership of the Chinese, don’t think so. So, if Taiwan faces significant resistance from the Taiwanese people and faces urban warfare, it would be difficult for China to anticipate building a successful beachhead and landing on Taiwan. It would also be difficult as U.S. Ships, submarines, and potentially missiles can target Chinese ships and missiles targeted by Taiwanese waters where they need to cross ninety treacherous miles. We’re still talking about this, but it would just be a walk in the park for the People’s Liberation Army, “Well,” say, and we shouldn’t oversimplify things but geography does cut in favor of China. SACKS: Yeah.
SIERRA: How would a dispute regarding Taiwan impact the global community?
The impact of China’s inclusion in the global economy would also affect Taiwan’s manufacturing industry, but taking any military action could halt the entire global economy. China is often referred to as the “factory of the world,” as its economy is integrated into the global economy, unlike Taiwan’s. However, Russia is an important energy supplier and its influence on the global economy would be much more drastic. In my opinion, if the United States were to respond by deploying military forces to defend Taiwan, it could potentially lead to a conflict and draw other powerful countries into it. I think this would be disastrous and the worst-case scenario would be a full-scale amphibious invasion and occupation of Taiwan by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The outcome of this kind of situation depends on various factors.
SIERRA: What is the potential for increased risk in this situation? What about the likelihood of nuclear escalation?
Being dishonest is another way to say something that you believe but do not want to admit. It is possible for educated individuals to make educated guesses about how a conflict might play out. We do not have a clear answer about whether Taiwan would immediately resort to nuclear weapons or if they would rely on conventional weaponry. It is challenging to determine the direct relevance of Taiwan in my perspective because China currently has a significant nuclear arsenal buildup. Frankly, I believe this is a very important question that we have not fully explored.
What measures can be taken to prevent the conflict? It appears quite evident that this is a matter that every individual on the planet is genuinely interested in avoiding, Sierra.
In terms of substance, we should take more action. However, we should refrain from engaging in symbolic gestures that may fuel Chinese apprehension and potentially elicit a response from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), without actually significantly improving Taiwan’s defensive capabilities or resilience. In my opinion, there are numerous crucial things we neglect to do in relation to Taiwan, which are equally important in this scenario. We should strive to prevent the PRC from economically isolating Taiwan. Collaborating with Taiwan on global supply chain issues, negotiating a bilateral trade agreement, and investing more effort into enhancing Taiwan’s economic competitiveness are all essential. Nevertheless, we must avoid playing into these fears. Personally, I believe there are limitations to what we can do in that regard. Therefore, it is not advisable to contribute to the perception that time is running out and Taiwan’s situation is deteriorating. However, we should aim to alleviate the sense of urgency felt by the PRC concerning Taiwan. So, how can we assist Taiwan in addressing its vulnerabilities and ensuring that it can withstand Chinese aggression until the United States can provide assistance? It is worth noting that Taiwan heavily relies on energy imports, while also being a net importer of food and medical supplies. Considering this context, I believe we need to take significant steps to strengthen deterrence in the Taiwan Strait. This entails prioritizing the deployment of stealth bombers, submarines, and long-range missiles by the United States, as these would be crucial assets in a potential conflict over Taiwan. Additionally, we should assist Taiwan in enhancing its military capabilities through training and support, as well as consider measures to enhance civil resilience and the ability to withstand a conflict. It is important that Taiwan acts responsibly and refrains from declaring independence. Simultaneously, the United States should maintain its One China policy and not officially recognize Taiwan as an independent country. This political foundation should remain intact. Ultimately, I believe it is imperative for the United States to uphold its One China policy and not acknowledge Taiwan as an independent nation.
How can we keep off-ramps open? How can we avoid the mindset that prevents sorting? It is particularly interesting that all Taiwanese people are obviously interested in preventing this, and the U.S. Will be compelled to intervene and take Taiwan back from China sooner or later. This logic could be a self-fulfilling prophecy and prevent Taiwan’s interests. Obviously, we all have an interest in preventing this and the U.S. Will be compelled to intervene and take Taiwan back from China sooner or later. How can we avoid the mindset that prevents sorting? Some people in certain circles feel that conflict between China and the United States is inevitable.
It is also hoped that all parties involved see the best way to maintain the status quo and pursue a future without rocking the boat. We should keep open off-ramps, as there are various ways to do so. There are also significant costs involved, and it would be tremendously costly for all parties involved if we assume that war is the only option. It is assumed that some level of rationality still exists in Beijing’s foreign policy decision-making process, and they are not acting recklessly.
He expresses genuine doubts about whether the Chinese military can achieve its objective. He believes that today is not the day to accomplish this. When Xi Jinping wakes up in the morning and looks across the Taiwan Strait, he realizes that it remains extremely challenging to ensure the view he desires. In my opinion, China should not strive to solve the Taiwan issue in a way that jeopardizes its ability to maintain its democratic institutions and economic vitality. Instead, finesse should be used to continue in the current manner where China feels compelled to maintain its democratic institutions and economic vitality. Our aim should not be to sack Taiwan.
We will be back in the fall with fresh content! Let us know at [email protected] if you have any topics you would like us to write about or if you would like to hear more about the behind-the-scenes working of a whole new batch of episodes. Time truly flies. This is actually the last episode of our seventh season. Hey, everyone!
Please visit CFR.Org/whyitmattersand for the resources utilized in this episode and for additional information. Additionally, please refer to the show notes. If you have any inquiries or recommendations, or if you simply want to have a conversation with us, please feel free to email us at [email protected] or reach out to us on Twitter using the handle @CFR_org.
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For Why It Matters, this is Gabrielle Sierra bidding adieu. See you in the autumn!