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National Weather Service Flood Briefing
The National Weather Service in Glasgow recently held a flood briefing to discuss the current weather conditions and provide information on what to expect regarding flooding in the area.
Current Weather Conditions
The recent rain/snow event resulted in a half to 3/4 inch of liquid precipitation in the Valley, along with less than 2 inches of snow. However, in northern Valley County, there is a chance of receiving over 6 inches of snow. These weather conditions have caused rivers to rise rapidly.
Major Flooding in Valley County
Due to the rapid warmup over the past weekend, many areas along the Milk River in Valley County are experiencing major flooding as of April 13. The rise in river levels has been significant, and several basins are currently affected.
Impact of Cooler Than Normal Conditions
In the next few weeks, the weather is expected to be cooler than normal. While this will slow down the melting process, there is also an expectation of above-normal precipitation. This combination of factors may prolong the current flooding concerns and potentially cause rivers to rise even higher.
Milk River at Tampico
As of April 13, the Milk River at Tampico is expected to crest just below record flooding levels. However, with continued melting and precipitation over the next week, there is a possibility that the river may surpass the record. The river has already reached a level that puts it at the fifth highest on record. The forecast indicates that the river will crest around 27.8 feet by early next week, which would make it the third highest crest of all time if the forecast remains unchanged.
Milk River in Glasgow
In Glasgow, the forecast predicts that the Milk River will crest near 32 feet. This is approximately 1 foot below the crest recorded in 1952 and 2 feet below the crest observed in June of 2011. If the river does reach 32 feet, it would be the first time since 2011. The current forecast, if unchanged, would make it the 13th highest crest on record. To break into the top 10, the river would need to surpass 32.50 feet.
Milk River in Nashua
In Nashua, the forecast indicates that the Milk River will crest at 27.4 feet early next week. This would be the highest crest since 2019 and the ninth highest on record. The current record stage for Nashua is 31.38 feet, which was set during the 1952 flooding.
Additional Flood Information
During the flood briefing, various stakeholders from Valley County, Roosevelt County, Glasgow, and Nashua, as well as members of the Army Corps of Engineers and Montana DES, gathered to discuss the impact of the recent warm-up in temperatures on local streams, creeks, and the Milk River.
At the time of the briefing, flood warnings had been issued for Beaver Creek near Hinsdale, with minor flooding expected as the crest was projected to rise to 14.7 feet on Monday afternoon and then fall below flood stage by Tuesday evening. There were also reports of flooding on Larb Creek south of Beaverton, on the Phillips and Valley County line, as well as on the Billingsley Road due to Antelope Creek flooding. Additionally, water was reported over the road on the Fort Peck Highway near Maxness and Duck Creek roads.
The National Weather Service in Glasgow emphasized the importance of remaining cautious while driving and urged people to turn around and find alternative routes if they encounter flooding on roadways.
Spring-Like Conditions and Rainfall
According to the National Weather Service, the current spring-like conditions are expected to continue for the foreseeable future, with a chance of rain towards the end of the week. Within Valley County, it is anticipated that less than a quarter inch of rain will fall, which could result in small creeks and streams running higher than normal. However, the Milk River is not expected to be significantly affected by the rainfall. The gradual melting of the snowpack, coupled with average temperatures, should prevent major flooding in the area.
Flooding Predictions for the Milk River in Glasgow
The National Weather Service’s models suggest a 100 percent chance of the Milk River in Glasgow reaching minor flood stage, which is 25 feet. There is a 50 percent chance of moderate flooding and a less than 10 percent chance of reaching major flood stage. Low-lying farmlands along the Milk River can expect some flooding when the river reaches a height of 26 feet. The back trails of Sullivan Park will also experience flooding around the 26 feet mark, while the baseball fields will flood at 29 feet.
Monitoring the Missouri River and Basins
The National Weather Service is closely monitoring the Missouri River and all basins across northeast Montana. While the reach of the Milk River near Malta does not currently pose any flooding potential, there is an increasing risk of flooding between Saco and Glasgow. Creeks flowing north to south, which feed into the Milk and Missouri Rivers, are at a higher risk of flooding. Several creeks, including Beaver, Whitewater, Frenchman, Big Muddy Rock, Cherry, and Poplar, are of particular concern and will be closely watched.
Snowfall and Temperature Records
Despite the perception of a long winter, the amount of snowfall this season was not a record-breaking amount. In fact, it was approximately 40 inches less than the record-breaking season of 2010-2011. On April 8, Glasgow experienced its first high temperature of 50 degrees or higher. This marked the end of a 154-day streak of high temperatures below 50 degrees. The previous time the area reached 50 degrees was on November 5, 2022.
Stay Updated
For the latest forecast updates, you can visit weather.gov/glasgow. If you have any questions or wish to submit weather reports or photos, you can email [email protected] or call 406-228-9622.
Note: The information provided above was accurate as of the time of publication. Please refer to the latest updates for the most current information.