Will Biden win? 3 clues to track – and his approval rating isn’t one of them

Democrats are eager to know, despite the low approval rating, if pollsters will inform them that President Joe Biden wants to seek a second term – WASHINGTON.

However, Joe Biden formally launched his reelection campaign on Tuesday, despite the fact that there are potential dangers ahead, including a possible recession and the fact that he has more in common with his recent predecessors than with the third-party contender who didn’t win at the moment.

According to Allan Lichtman, a historian from American University who developed a well-regarded system of 13 “keys” for winning the White House, “He begins in a rather favorable position.” He expressed that “however, any other Democratic candidate would begin in a significantly more disadvantageous position.” It is premature to make any predictions for 2024.

Throughout his initial tenure, Biden has achieved the approval of notable policies, such as pandemic aid, investment in infrastructure, and initiatives aimed at tackling climate change. In addition, he spearheads a comparatively cohesive party.

In his campaign launch for the 2020 election, he repeatedly used language calling for a battle “for the soul of America” and described the opposition as “MAGA extremists.” He declared in a rapid three-minute video announcing his candidacy, “Let’s complete this task.”

FILE - President Joe Biden talks to reporters after a lunch with Senate Democrats on his upcoming budget and political agenda, at the Capitol in Washington, Thursday, March 2, 2023.

How about those endorsement ratings?

When the last nine presidents announced their reelection bids on Election Day, only three had ratings in the Gallup Poll that ended up losing, with only 50% upside. It is of little value in predicting how they will fare in the campaign, as the approval rating of the president says little about their chances, according to History.

Ronald Reagan won a second term with 52% of the vote. George H.W. Bush won the first Gulf War with a 65% approval rating, while Jimmy Carter received 51% of the votes.

During his time in office, Donald Trump maintained an approval rating of 39% at this juncture, announcing his intention to seek a second term as he was being inaugurated for his initial term. Biden’s rating of 40% slightly surpasses the figures of most previous presidents, who typically hovered around the 40-something percent range when they officially launched their reelection campaigns.

Despite speculation that fed talk and delayed his decision, Biden’s announcement to run came early on Tuesday, which was a modern presidents’ timing.

Nixon Richard and Gerald Ford waited until the fall or winter, while George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and George W. Bush formally announced their reelection in April of the year before their respective terms.

Starting from Nixon, five presidents have successfully secured a second term in office, while four have been unsuccessful.

Here are three hints to follow what lies ahead.

Is he being considered for the nomination?

There is no shortage of Democrats who have eyed Sen. Amy Klobuchar from Minnesota and Pete Buttigieg, Secretary of Transportation, as potential candidates for running for president. Gavin Newsom, the Governor of California, is also considering them.

The chances of a credible emerging challenger seem low now. However, the chatter about replacing Biden as the nominee has quieted after Democrats fared better than expected in the November midterm elections, bolstering their control of the Senate and limiting their losses in the House to a handful.

That is important because the history of wounded presidents leaving office includes battles in primary elections. Both Kennedy and Buchanan challenged Carter in 1980, while Bush elder was challenged by Pat Buchanan in 1992 after losing reelection but still holding the nomination.

A USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll, which was made public this week, reveals that 70% of voters who backed him in 2020 believe that he has governed in a manner that is “about right,” neither excessively liberal nor insufficiently liberal. Biden has predominantly brought together Democrats ideologically, although disputes within his coalition persist on matters such as immigration and social justice.

Biden vs. Trump: Significant obstacles, but contrasting ones, as the 2024 rematch commences – Survey.

In the coming months, Trump may encounter increasing legal difficulties. Additionally, Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida is likely to face several primary challengers, but the GOP field is currently more united than the Democrats.

He is already facing criminal indictment as the former president, and a civil trial related to rape allegations opened in New York on Tuesday. He denies any wrongdoing in both cases.

Will the economy experience a gentle descent or a financial collapse?

Clinton’s 1992 statement remains accurate. When it comes to securing the presidency, the economy is the decisive factor.

The Federal Reserve Board has been raising interest rates to tamp down inflation, ideally slowing the economy into a recession. Inflation, which unexpectedly rose surprisingly and stubbornly, has cost President Biden confidence in his handling of the presidency and has been high among Americans.

Last month, when Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, it prompted the Federal Reserve and government regulators to take emergency steps, raising fears of more turmoil in the banking sector and dimming the once-rosy scenario.

Is an economic downturn on the horizon? The majority of corporate economists do not anticipate a decline occurring within the next year.

He secured a second term in the following election with a resounding victory in 49 states, after the recession came to an end two years prior – however, the economy experienced a significant decline just six months into Reagan’s initial term. The occurrence of a recession does not automatically guarantee a president’s chances of being reelected.

What matters politically is recovering from a recession in time to argue during the campaign that happy days really are here again.

Can a trustworthy third-party candidate participate in the election?

A credible third-party candidate for president turns election arithmetic into calculus, complicating how to get the Electoral College majority needed to win.

A centrist group called No Labels has announced an effort to get candidates deemed “unacceptable” by the two major parties on the tickets of all 50 states with the idea of backing them as bipartisan or independent nominees. There may be one on the horizon.

The group has already obtained a place on the ballot in the pivotal state of Arizona, as well as in Colorado, Alaska, and Oregon.

The presentation argues that the unnamed third-party candidate could win the White House, offering voters with their means of dissatisfaction as options. No labels in a rematch, Trump v. Biden.

In the aftermath of the election, he is confronted with challenges as his ranks continue to grow. Even enthusiastic Trump supporters are questioning his shallow and broad support for Biden, which carries bigger risks. Additionally, some Democrats fear that the independent campaign is more likely to become a spoiler.

In 1992, during a year when independent candidate Ross Perot obtained 18.9% of the votes, Clinton emerged victorious over George H.W. Bush with a mere 43% of the votes. When a third-party candidate garners a substantial portion of the vote, it is possible for a presidential candidate to secure a victory with less than 50%.

Ralph Nader, the Green Party nominee, failed to win more than 97,000 votes in any state, including Florida where he lost the 2000 presidential election to George W. Bush, the Republican candidate, by a margin of 537 votes. This is worth considering for Al Gore, the Democratic candidate.