From the Oval Office to a prison cell, Trump’s downfall will surely be seen as a source of rage and embarrassment, igniting sparks of humiliation for all involved. It is inevitable that Trump will be remanded into custody, leaving some with a glimmer of hope in these particular cases.
Prior to the election, or potentially during a prospective second Trump tenure, incarceration does not automatically enhance the likelihood of amplifying the accusations. Nevertheless, the federal lawsuit in Florida poses a significant danger for Trump, just like the Georgia indictment.
The left is experiencing its own version of “lock him up” chanting, expecting incarceration to boost business. On Monday night, Hillary Clinton and Rachel Maddow were joyfully laughing, showing a sense of anticipation, as captured on MSNBC during the Georgia indictment.
Let’s quickly review the four cases against Trump. Despite the incarceration and arraignments, there is still a great deal of runway between them.
The indictment led by Alvin Bragg, the District Attorney of Manhattan, is based on a thin legal theory pushed by a determined prosecutor. It is something for which anything can be charged.
The charges over the mishandling of classified documents, which is the most powerful of the four federal indictments, are supported by established law and firm evidence.
The federal indictment surrounding the U.S. Capitol riot on January 6, 2021, and the Georgia case are both based on the view that associates of Trump knew there was no reasonable basis for the challenge to the 2020 election. The federal indictment is similar to the indictment in the Georgia case in terms of the underlying acts.
A federal pardon is not only exempt from, but also may prove challenging to contest against pre-trial state charges imposed by Georgia.
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The 98-page indictment contains 13 counts against Trump. The state charges include mandatory minimum sentences of five years in prison, with no leeway for the judge, even for a 77-year-old man who has never been incarcerated before.
Does it truly seem unlikely that the judicial system would send an elderly former president to prison for the rest of his life, given the hopeful visions of Trump fending for himself in a yard of a real prison?
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It is important to remember that none of the charges against Trump will stop him from running for president or being elected if he is serving.
Impractical is the commencement of the Georgia case on March 4, as per the request of Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis. Unprobable is the prompt conclusion of this case, as well as others. Additionally, it is probable that there will be motions to transfer the case to a federal court.
If the presidential vote were held in the midst of the trial, Trump would not be barred from appearing on the office of oath taking or ballot. The country may have to wait until the next election year after the trial, as the civil and criminal proceedings previously scheduled around Georgia are competing.
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Debs Eugene, a socialist, holds the distinction of being the first person to run for presidency from prison, as he served time in federal prison while on the ballot in 1920.
Several years could readily consume that procedure. The legal matter in Georgia presented substantial constitutional and evidential concerns that the majority of courts would grant him the freedom to await appeals if Trump is found guilty.
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Trump’s counsel (and likely the Justice Department) would argue that performing his federal responsibilities clashes with imprisoning a current president. Although state crimes cannot be pardoned by federal authorities, there would be an instant legal dispute if Trump were to secure victory in 2024 and a judge were to mandate his imprisonment while he serves as president.
By prolonging the appeals procedure beyond the conclusion of a second term, the judicial system could effectively accomplish the identical outcome. Any imprisonment could be postponed until after the term, and the federal judiciary could harmonize the state and federal concerns in this dispute by allocating sufficient time.
Assuming that an incarceration order in the Georgia case is upheld during a potential second Trump presidency, the state would be required to comply with federal authority to ensure the accommodation of his security detail and the execution of his duties.
Trump would have to wait for five years to be eligible. Under the current provisions, a five-member board appointed by the state constitution grants pardons. There may also be a movement to change Georgia’s pardon law during this time.
The present governor has scarcely endeared himself to Trump, and that process of amending the constitution is extremely rigorous. Nevertheless, there might be an effort to grant the governor additional conventional pardon authority, and Georgia is merely one of a few states with such a framework.
The online anger towards Trump is likely to continue, even if he is jailed. In fact, it is unlikely that any anticipation of Trump going to prison will be able to suppress the creation of memes.
The incarcerate-him faction is a party pooper for an analysis of the legal proceedings ahead. There is no guarantee that he will be sent to the White House instead of the prison, despite the abundance of charges against Trump.