Comienza temporada de huracanes del Atlántico: ¿cuál es el pronóstico?

The meteorologists from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami expect “a season more or less close to normal.” It will extend until November 30th and has officially started on June 1st, the hurricane season.

According to Anthony Reynes, a meteorologist at the CNH, in statements to the Voice of America, “every year we have to be well prepared for a system, regardless of the number of systems we are expecting. However, we have to remember that we are talking about 12 to 17 named systems.”

Los preparativos

Experts recommend reviewing a contingency plan, which consists of having everything necessary in case of the arrival of a hurricane, regardless of its strength.

“If you decide to visit, it is important to have all the important documents for your family, as well as provisions. If you need any of these systems, make sure you are well-prepared and secure.”

We will explain the different categories of hurricanes below, using kilometers per hour to measure the wind speed. The intensity of a hurricane is classified in categories based on the maximum sustained speed of the wind. Hurricanes are powerful meteorological phenomena characterized by adverse atmospheric conditions and extremely strong winds.

Categoría 1: Huracanes débiles (120-152 km/h)

Category 1 hurricanes, which are relatively less intense compared to other hurricanes, still have the potential to cause significant damage. The winds in this classification vary between 120 and 152 km/h. They have the capability to topple small trees, harm movable structures, and result in minor coastal flooding.

Categoría 2: Huracanes moderados (153-176 km/h)

Hurricanes can cause more severe coastal flooding. In addition, hurricanes can cause extensive damage, such as widespread power outages, fallen trees, and partial destruction of roofs. Hurricanes range in speeds from 153 to 176 km/h, with Category 2 hurricanes having stronger winds than Category 1 hurricanes.

Categoría 3: Huracanes fuertes (177-208 km/h)

Category 3 hurricanes are classified as powerful hurricanes. Their wind speeds vary from 177 to 208 km/h. Within this classification, there can be substantial impacts, such as roof devastation, structural harm to buildings, and extended periods without electricity. The severity of coastal flooding intensifies, and the ocean waves can pose a threat.

Categoría 4: Huracanes muy fuertes (209-251 km/h)

Commonly, these hurricanes can cause catastrophic damage, including severe flooding in coastal areas and widespread evacuations. These hurricanes have winds ranging from 209 km/h to 251 km/h, making them a significant threat and falling into the category 4 of hurricanes.

Categoría 5: Huracanes extremadamente fuertes (252 km/h o más)

Completely interrupted, basic services can be disrupted in order to protect lives, and evacuations are necessary. Catastrophic flooding in coastal areas includes total destruction of buildings and homes. These hurricanes can cause massive devastation, with winds of over 252 km/h. The most dangerous and destructive hurricanes are category 5.

El fenómeno de El Niño

Reynés commented, “near the tropic and the Pacific, the waters change every three to five years, specifically during certain periods when it causes what it causes, which is what we are not yet 100% sure about in scientific terms, which is what El Niño is, a phenomenon. However, these conditions are not present this year.”

Normally in the Atlantic, the formation of cyclones becomes more challenging, which ultimately leads to an impact on the winds and their circulation in the atmosphere. These alterations result in an above-average warming, ranging from 1oC to 3oC.

Reynés emphasizes that, despite the current circumstances, “we should not diminish our vigilance and remain ready for the potential occurrence of a cyclone.” When El Niño is present, bringing about slightly elevated temperatures in the tropical Pacific, it impacts the atmosphere of the Atlantic, leading to a decrease in cyclone activity throughout the year.

¿Qué países están en alerta?

The countries that may be impacted by the arrival of a cyclone are Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean countries bordering the Atlantic, as well as the East Coast of the United States.

The expert meteorologist on hurricanes details what must not be missing in homes: non-perishable canned food must be available for all family members, for at least seven days, as well as bottled water.

¿Cuándo hay más actividad ciclónica?

The hurricane season lasts for six months, but Reynes insists that a hurricane can occur at any time during the season. Although the statistics indicate that “August and September” are the months with typically higher activity, the truth is that these data should not make the population feel confident.

The cyclonic surge of water, which is known to be caused by strong winds that can cause large floods, is a great danger to the population, as Reynés points out, although he also clarifies that cyclones are popularly known for bringing large amounts of water.

According to the expert, historically, one of the events where the most people die is the aspect of hurricanes, specifically the cyclonic surge of water from the impact, we cannot forget.

It states that, as we saw in hurricane Ian last year, a strong hurricane storm surge can reach heights of 5 to 10 feet (15 to 30 meters), which could already be covering the first level of an average structure. This is very important because if people live near the coast, receive an evacuation warning, and decide to stay at home, the population could be “exposed to danger”. In this regard, it emphasizes.