VN-Index dropped more than 8 points, matching liquidity on HoSE jumped to 1.2 billion shares
HoSE recorded a session with “terrible” liquidity, the matched volume was over 1.2 billion shares, equivalent to over 21,100 billion dong. This movement happened in the context that the market turned down after 5 consecutive gaining sessions. Mid-cap stocks were the most “templed” when the VNMID-Index dropped by 28 points, or 1.94%.
Session 8/6, VN-Index dropped more than 8 points, or 0.74%, to 1,101.32 points. However, in reality, the market traded much more negative than the decrease of VN-Index. The most tragic was the group of mid-cap stocks when the VNMID-Index fell over 28 points, equivalent to 1.94%.
VN-Index received great support from VCB when this ticker increased by 3.09% to round 100,000 VND/share. The rest of banking codes were all in the red, most of them dropped sharply. Specifically, BID down 1.47%, CTG down 1.21%, VPB down 2.01%, TCB down 2.61%, MBB down 1.72%, STB down 2.65%, VIB down 3.18 %, TPB down 2.48%, EIB down 3.03%, MSB down 2.31%, LPB down 2.33%.
Securities stocks fell deeply as SSI dropped 3.19%, VND 5.97%, VCI down 3.55%, HCM down 3.51%, FTS down 4.05%, BSI down 3.03%, AGR down 5.28%.
The real estate group was also in the red. Strong losers include NVL losing 2.41%, KBC down 2.83%, DIG down 5.45%, NLG down 3.28%, VCG down 4.23%, DXG down 4.61 %, ITA down 3.91%, CII down 3.57%, HHV down 3.85%. However, there were still some upstream stocks hitting the ceiling like QCG, TCD, TIP, LDG.
The production group is more evenly divided, but the red color still prevails. While VNM fell 1.06%, MSN decreased by 1.46%, GVR decreased by 2.96%, DGC decreased by 2.32%, DCM decreased by 2.54%, HSG decreased by 2.39%, HPG increased by 0.88% , DHG increased 5.17%, VHC increased 0.49%, POM hit the ceiling.
Energy stocks also diverge. Accordingly, GAS decreased by 0.95%, PGV decreased by 3.36%, PLX decreased by 1.54% but POW increased by 0.36%.
Retail stocks were negative as MWG, PNJ and FRT lost 2.75%, 0.55% and 0.52% respectively. On the contrary, aviation stocks “take off” when VJC and HVN gained 0.62% and 1.87% respectively.
On the HoSE, there were 139 stocks of increasing price, 38 stocks of standing at the reference price and 269 stocks of decreasing. The matching liquidity was very high with 1.2 billion shares, equivalent to the matched value of 21,111 billion dong.
Suck cash flow of 5 million billion dong deposited in investment bank into bonds
Mr. Do Ngoc Quynh, General Secretary of the Vietnam Bond Market Association, said that at present, the amount of residential deposits in the banking system is over 5 million billion VND. The problem here is that the bond market in particular and other types of financial assets in general need policy adjustments to attract the first inflow into long-term financial investments.
Bond market declines over 90%
Assessing the bond market in the first months of 2023, discussed in the Talk show Finance Street Talk (The Finance Street Talk Show) on VTV, Ms. Nguyen Thi Hang Nga, CFA, Deputy General Director of Vietcombank fund management company ( VCBF) believes that there have been positive signs in the secondary market, but in the primary market, it is still very quiet due to demand factors.
“Firstly, for banks and insurance companies, both of these subjects are now not allowed to buy issued bonds to restructure debt. As for securities companies in the past, they bought corporate bonds to distribute to individual investors, now they have almost no need for individual investors. Meanwhile, the fund management company, which is partly invested from the fund and partly as an investment trust by individual investors, has almost no new cash flow. As for the needs of foreign investors, there are some foreign investors who have also started to pay attention to the Vietnamese bond market, but it is still very small,” Ms. Nga said.
Mr. Do Ngoc Quynh, General Secretary of the Vietnam Bond Market Association (VBMA) also affirmed that compared to the same period last year, this year the excitement of the bond market has decreased by over 90%.
According to Mr. Quynh, after a period of market volatility, the arrest of issuers with leaders to investigate legal violations has caused market sentiment. However, until now, after a while, investors have reshaped the information, fully aware, more clearly, no longer rushing to sell bonds at all costs. This is a positive initial signal and also a good opportunity for genuine businesses to have the opportunity to gradually recover and ensure their debt repayment capacity for investors.
In addition, Mr. Quynh also said that in most countries, the corporate bond market is for professional investors, not for amateur investors.
“That is not to say that for professional investors, there is no risk. Professional investors are aware and they understand and they accept risks when they choose such investment products and options or investment methods. In general, we all need to continuously learn and improve our knowledge, and if investors understand, they can join,” he said.
Sharing the same comment, Ms. Nguyen Thi Hang Nga assessed that the corporate bond market is not a market for individual and amateur investors.
“Previously, many investors still equated investing in corporate bonds with going to the bank, but it’s actually very different. Because, if only to get a yield that is about 3-4% higher than the whole bank deposit, the investor has a huge risk and may not receive the whole principal or only receive a part. , or delayed repayment…then it’s also a pretty big risk compared to the profit it brings,” Ms. Nga said.
Policy adjustments are needed
Forecasting the market in the coming time, Ms. Nga said that the market situation had a positive point when deposit interest rates fell. Accordingly, investors will have to look for investment opportunities with higher interest rates, including starting to look back to investments in bonds.
“In fact, the source of money in the market, regardless of organization, is from individual investors. When the confidence of individual investors has not really returned, market demand will still be weak, because to Restoring trust takes time,” Nga said.
According to the General Secretary of the VBMA, not only in Vietnam, but also in all countries around the world, there are always investors looking for investment opportunities suitable to their understanding and risk appetite.
“Currently, the amount of residential deposits in the commercial banking system alone, even after the events, is still somewhere over 5 million billion VND. The problem here is that with the bond market in particular and other types of financial assets in general, in order to attract investors’ cash flows, we need to make adjustments in terms of policy on receiving investors. knowledge and behavior of market participants”, Mr. Quynh stated.
Ms. Nguyen Thi Hang Nga assessed that the total credit across the country has exceeded 130%, so the need for long-term capital through the bond market for business development is very large. Accordingly, the most fundamental and long-term solution is to focus on developing professional bond investment funds.
Besides, according to Ms. Nga, the Government can offer tax incentives; The State Bank also needs to consider the refinancing mechanism when investment funds have liquidity problems…
“It is hoped that the Government will allow funds to be invested in privately issued bonds, not just bonds issued to the public or listed bonds, because in the near future, bonds Individual funds will also be registered for centralized trading at the Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX), and this expansion will also help the funds to reduce risks and diversify their portfolios. for issuers, they should also balance their capital structure appropriately, should only issue bonds when those investment projects are effective and need transparency,” she said.
BCG Gaia was disbursed by DBS Bank with a credit package of VND 1,834 billion
BCG Gaia Joint Stock Company, a member of Bamboo Capital Group, announced that it has been successfully disbursed by Singapore’s DBS Bank Limited (DBS) with a loan of 77.5 million USD, equivalent to about 1,834 billion VND.
It is known that BCG Gaia Joint Stock Company is a joint venture between BCG Energy – a member company of Bamboo Capital Group and SembCorp Energy Vietnam, a unit specializing in the development of large-scale solar power projects in Dong Nai provinces. by the Mekong River. BCG Gaia is currently the owner of two solar power plants, BCG Long An 1 and BCG Long An 2 with a total capacity of 141 MW.
The loan of VND 1,834 billion from DBS has a very good interest rate and a fairly long term, suitable for the development roadmap of solar energy projects. BCG Gaia said that it will use the loan to strengthen the financial structure, lower the investment interest rate bracket for the two solar power field projects it owns significantly, and at the same time improve its competitiveness with businesses. other on the market.
In the context of recent fluctuations in the international and domestic financial markets, the mobilization of capital for most businesses is difficult. The mobilization of VND 1,834 billion from DBS shows the confidence of international financial institutions in the business platform and healthy credit profile of the projects developed by BCG Gaia.
At the end of March 2023, a subsidiary of a joint venture of BCG Energy and SP Group (Singapore) raised a syndicated loan of USD 31.5 million from three Singapore banks, DBS Bank Limited (DBS). , Oversea Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) and United Overseas Bank Limited (UOB).
BCG Energy said that the joint venture company was granted a credit line of up to 50 million USD by Singapore banks, the parties are still in the process of negotiating to disburse the rest.
Pham Nguyen Ngoc Thuong, Deputy General Director of BCG Energy said: “The recently approved Power Master Plan VIII shows the Government’s commitment and determination in a fair energy transition towards strong development of energy sources. renewable quantity. This is also an important legal basis for businesses to implement new renewable energy projects in the future, and at the same time creates favorable conditions for mobilizing a huge source of “green credit” from credit institutions. and financial institutions at home and abroad.
BCG Energy will take advantage of the opportunity opened up from Power Master Plan 8 to continue working with reputable organizations to mobilize additional development resources for wind and solar power projects, actively contributing to the development process. clean energy transition in Vietnam”.
Recommended stocks for today 8/6: VNM, TPB and VHM
KBSV forecasts VNM’s business results in 2023 with net revenue of VND 62,536 billion and profit after tax of VND 8,929 billion. KBSV also gives a hold recommendation for VNM shares with a target price of VND 72,000/share.
VNM: KBSV recommends holding, target price 72,000 dong/share
At the end of the first quarter of 2023, Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company (HoSE: VNM) achieved net revenue of VND 13,954 billion, a slight increase of 0.1% despite the difficult economy, very weak purchasing power, and ended. 3 consecutive quarters of negative revenue growth. However, gross profit margin still remained at a relatively low level of 38.8% due to the remaining inventory of high-priced goods from previous quarters.
In a recent analysis report, KB Securities Vietnam Joint Stock Company (KBSV) predicts that VNM’s gross profit margin will increase slightly in the coming quarters. EAT was only 1,906 billion dong (down 16.5% y/y) due to many expenses such as interest expense, slight SG&A during the period.
The domestic market continued to face many difficulties as predicted by KBSV, the purchasing power declined, so even though it is an essential commodity, VNM cannot avoid difficulties. Total domestic revenue reached 11,491 billion dong (MCM reached 734 billion dong) slightly down 1% YoY. The bright spot is that MCM continues to grow steadily, Dream Milk Viet shop starts to gain efficiency with 652 stores nationwide.
Besides, foreign revenue reached VND 1,225 billion (up 7.5% over the same period) ending the decline. The export market recovered on a low basis with the return of demand from the Middle East market, VNM milk gradually gained popularity in Asian markets. Foreign branches have grown steadily, AngkorMilk in Cambodia continues to grow by double digits.
KBSV forecasts VNM’s business results in 2023 with net revenue of VND 62,536 billion (up 4% over the same period), profit after tax of VND 8,929 billion (up 4.1% over the same period). KBSV also gives a hold recommendation for VNM shares with a target price of VND 72,000/share.
VHM: KBSV recommends buying, target price is 78,300 VND/share
Revenue in the first quarter of 2023 of Vinhomes Joint Stock Company (HoSE: VHM) reached VND 29.3 trillion (up 228% over the same period) mainly thanks to the handover at Ocean Park 2 project. If including transactions wholesale transactions at Ocean Park 2 and 3 projects (recognized in financial revenue) and BCC project, revenue reached VND 42.5 trillion (up 198% over the same period). Profit after tax of shareholders of parent company reached VND 11.9 trillion (up 162%).
In the first quarter of 2023, VHM sold 2,300 products (down 76% y/y) with a total contract value of VND 15.7 trillion (down 5%), of which VND 11.2 trillion came from wholesale transactions at Ocean Park 2 and Ocean Park 3 projects and VND 4.5 trillion from retail transactions, most of which came from 223 units at Ocean Park 3 project. Total contract value sold and unsold recorded accumulated revenue by the end of the first quarter of 2023 at VND 92.7 trillion (up 63% over the same period).
In 2023, VHM will continue to promote sales at two projects Ocean Park 2 and Ocean Park 3 and plan to launch two new projects including: Vu Yen (Hai Phong) and Golden Avenue (Quang Ninh), depending on depending on market conditions. KBSV estimates that VHM’s total sales contract value in 2023 will reach VND 74.2 trillion (down 42% YoY), most of which comes from Ocean Park 2 and Ocean Park 3 projects.
KBSV also assessed that VHM maintains its leading position thanks to its large land bank and strong project implementation ability. Based on the business outlook and valuation, this securities company continues to recommend to buy VHM stock with a target price of VND 78,300/share, 42% higher than the closing price on 06/06. 06/2023.
TPB: VNDirect recommends positive, target price 31,000 dong/share
In the first quarter of 2023, VNDirect Securities Company recorded a 13% increase in profitable assets over the same period (up 5.3% since the beginning of the year), of which loans grew by 15% over the same period (up 7 .3% since the beginning of the year). TPB’s loan growth was higher than the industry average thanks to its high proportion of corporate loans (up 11.6% y/y, including small and medium enterprises, accounting for 43.4% of total loans) due to poor lending conditions. The previous lack of liquidity boosted the demand for loans.
However, NIM decreased by 33 basis points over the same period due to difficulties in corporate bond segment and decrease in CASA ratio. As a result, TPB’s operating income fell 3.3% year-on-year. Provision expenses dropped sharply by 58% y/y, helping net profit increase by 8.8% y/y to VND 1,413 billion – fulfilling 21% of VNDirect Securities Company’s full year forecast.
According to VNDirect’s analysis, the high interest rate environment has reduced consumer spending and debt repayment capacity, thereby reducing the need for loans. On the other hand, banks will still be more cautious when lending to this group to minimize bad debts in the current situation.
Due to high retail loans (accounting for 56.7% of outstanding loans), TPB’s asset quality has deteriorated: bad debt ratio skyrocketed to 1.5% (compared to 0.8% at the end of 2022) ) and the LLR rate dropped to 84% at the end of Q1/2023 (compared to 135% at the end of 2022).
However, this securities company expects the situation to improve from the second half of 2023, due to the impact of supportive policies and the State Bank has lowered the operating interest rate 3 times, marking a reversal in monetary policy. to support the economy.
VNDirect expects TPB’s net profit growth to slow to 9%/18% y/y in the period 2023-2024 (compound growth rate 2020-2022 is 33.6%). On the bright side, the risks have been partly reflected in the price as TPB is currently trading at a 2023 P/B of 0.96x (the industry average is 1.2x) – just over a year. slightly below the negative 2 standard deviations of the 3-year average P/B, indicating an attractive valuation.
Accordingly, this securities company maintains a positive recommendation for the ticker TPB with a unchanged target price of VND31,000/share.
VNDirect’s target price is based on a target P/B 2023 method of 1.2x and residual earnings valuation (COE: 14.1%, LTG: 3%), equal weight. Downside risks include: lower-than-expected interest rate decline, higher-than-expected bad debt growth and slower-than-expected impact of support policies.