The coalition of the Forward Move party, led by Pita Limjaroenrat, had a majority of seats in the lower house of the 500-person parliament. However, their chances of forming a government were doomed due to the refusal of the military-appointed senators in the upper house, who make up 250 seats, to support him and maintain the status quo that prevents Thais from critiquing the monarchy. Srettha, the leader of the coalition, does not receive support for changing the draconian lese-majeste law, which is law 112, and this further hampers the chances of the initial eight-party coalition in the upper house of parliament.
Major institutional changes, such as lese-majeste reform, that Pheu Thai did not advocate for and always maintained a highly transactional approach, are becoming increasingly popular in Thailand. Despite the fact that the main pro-democracy party, Pheu Thai, spent two decades attempting to modify other institutions, intimidating the press, and overseeing extrajudicial killings in southern Thailand, Thaksin Shinawatra himself was occasionally seen as a questionable democrat. During the early years of Pheu Thai’s existence, when Thaksin Shinawatra was prime minister, the party brought significant benefits to Thailand by implementing a series of populist policies, including universal healthcare. Pheu Thai, known as the party that fought for democracy and economic equality in Thailand for nearly two decades, experienced the removal of prime ministers twice due to coups.
Now, the Thai Pheu party, which has been popular for years and is seen as another part of the Thai establishment, has refused to respect the announcement. In response to the Thai Pheu announcement, younger Thais have burned effigies of Thai Pheu leaders and demonstrated outside Thai Pheu offices. For example, the party’s credentials as a party of democracy, which it probably had in the past, have now been given up by Thai Pheu. It has formed a coalition with a series of conservative and older parties, and has discarded the Forward Move party.
We are likely to see a referendum soon in Thailand, which could potentially amend the monarchy and establishment, with Thaksin himself returning to power. Personally, I have doubts about Thai Pheu’s ability to govern, while they claim that if Thais vote for a new constitution, parliament will be dissolved. Thai Pheu has promised a referendum on whether to create a new constitution. However, Thai Pheu has refused to allow openly pro-military parties in its coalition, which is seen as a weak gesture and does not require the support of smaller parties. Thai Pheu does not get credit for this decision.
These modest steps by Thai Pheu are showing many Thai democrats that it is still trying to show its vision of Thai democracy and the actions that it represents, despite the horrible look.
The younger voters who support Forward Move are the ones who are predicted to dominate Thai politics in the future. Initially, polls did not favor Thai Pheu, even though they predicted that the monarchy, along with other Thai institutions, would be poorly represented in the election. However, many younger Thais, particularly those who want major institutional reforms in all aspects of Thai institutions, including the monarchy, believe that an incremental approach is necessary, even though a substantial change would be represented by a referendum.