Moving from a sauna to a hot tub would be more like trying to get away from the warmth by immersing oneself in the waters of the Gulf.
The temperature of water measured off the coast of Florida, even reached 97 degrees Fahrenheit. The waters around the Florida Peninsula are even warmer in the 90s. The marine heat wave has pushed temperatures into the 80s in most areas, particularly in the Gulf.
During the peak season of September and August, we typically begin to see this kind of warm water in which abnormal hurricanes occur. Regardless of the year, this early hot temperatures in the Gulf are very abnormal. Many measurements are taken at a depth of only a couple of meters, and the areas around the Florida Keys are fairly shallow.
There are several explanations for why we have been observing this unusually warm water.
Abnormal Sea Surface Temperatures and the Bermuda High
The Bermuda-Azores High is a semi-permanent region of increased atmospheric pressure situated in the central Atlantic.
The strength of the Bermuda High greatly contributes to the pressure variations – or disparities – throughout this area, which generate trade winds. These trade winds journey from the African coastline through the central Atlantic Ocean to the Caribbean, and they are impacted by this region of elevated atmospheric pressure.
The temperatures on the sea surface become hotter as pressures decrease in the atmosphere above them. There is an inverse relationship between temperatures and pressures. Due to the weakening of the Bermuda High, there is a decrease in pressure gradients across the region, which leads to abnormally warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic. The abnormally warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are a result of the warm sea surface temperatures caused by the Bermuda High weakening.
Conversely, the trade winds diminish in strength due to the Bermuda High.
When the trade winds weaken, the heat at the surface weakens the water below, creating deeper depths. This circulation helps lower the sea surface temperatures. The trade winds also contribute to the replacement of warmer surface waters with cooler waters from the deeper depths or through upwelling. Additionally, the climbing surface temperatures are observed when the trade winds are weakened.
What Does the Warm Gulf Mean for Hurricane Season?
The unusually warm Gulf waters could be concerning as we approach the height of hurricane season in the following month.
Meteorologists are actively studying the rapid intensification of hurricanes in the Gulf, which is believed to be a part of this process due to the loop caused by the deep warm waters from the Caribbean up through parts of the Gulf then back out around the tip of Florida. This is a current of deep waters that brings warm water from the Caribbean up through the Gulf of Mexico.
It is difficult to identify the strength of the Current Loop in the Gulf, especially in springtime, because distinguishing temperatures deeper from surface temperatures is challenging, as the Gulf’s SSTs are very warm, particularly when comparing the fairly shallow basin of the Gulf of Mexico to the deeper waters of the Atlantic.
If there is a thin layer of warm water, hurricanes are able to strengthen because they churn up the waters on the surface and need waters of at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit to strengthen. This thin layer of warm water is quickly replaced by cooler water, resulting in the weakening of the storm.
Similar to the Loop Current, warm core eddies are created when a region of heated water separates from an ocean current. Additionally, storms can quickly intensify if they come across a warm water eddy situated nearer to the shoreline.
Beyond the Carribean and towards the north of the Carribean, tropical cyclones discover additional routes when the system is less powerful, propelling them further south and into the Carribean as a result of a robust Bermuda High. The trajectory of tropical systems in the Atlantic is also influenced by the reduction in strength of the Bermuda High.
Another element that could assist us is present, however, as we approach the high point of the season, we will need to monitor the higher-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the Gulf.
The storm’s center is displaced, aiding in the sustenance of moist and warm air through convection. Vertical wind shear assists in removing thunderstorms or convection from the center of the tropical system. El Nino is anticipated to bring stronger wind shear across the Atlantic in September or August.
It’s too early to predict whether we will experience a storm in the northern Gulf this year, but a single storm can have a significant impact. Last year, we were fortunate enough to be excluded from the cone of uncertainty, while our friends in Florida endured the devastating Category 5 Ian, which permanently altered the terrain.
Beating the Heat this Week
The warm bathwater of the Gulf may assist in increasing the temperature this week.
Over the weekend, the heat index values will reach the 110s as temperatures are set to rise, and heat advisories have already been issued for certain areas in our region.
The higher-than-average temperatures in the Gulf could contribute to ongoing heat, offering little nighttime respite from the scorching daytime and perceived temperatures.
The oppressive humidity from the Gulf could worsen heat-related impacts and the light winds in the region. This could lead to extended periods of dangerous heat. Overnight, temperatures will struggle to fall below 80 degrees, especially in coastal regions where temperatures in the water sit in the 80s.
There is a possibility of experiencing record-breaking low temperatures along the Gulf Coast throughout the upcoming week.